Apple's long-standing pattern of annual iPhone releases in September underpins the 99.1% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this cadence for over a decade despite supply chain pressures, with recent iPhone 16 and 17 cycles showing no deviations in planning or component sourcing. Traders see minimal risk of slippage absent major disruptions such as severe semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles over features like sideloading or hardware standards. While extreme events like global trade restrictions could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and Apple's production scale make a 2026 release the dominant consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated99% chance
$175,091 Vol.
$175,091 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
99% chance
$175,091 Vol.
$175,091 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing pattern of annual iPhone releases in September underpins the 99.1% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this cadence for over a decade despite supply chain pressures, with recent iPhone 16 and 17 cycles showing no deviations in planning or component sourcing. Traders see minimal risk of slippage absent major disruptions such as severe semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles over features like sideloading or hardware standards. While extreme events like global trade restrictions could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and Apple's production scale make a 2026 release the dominant consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$175,091End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing pattern of annual iPhone releases in September underpins the 99.1% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this cadence for over a decade despite supply chain pressures, with recent iPhone 16 and 17 cycles showing no deviations in planning or component sourcing. Traders see minimal risk of slippage absent major disruptions such as severe semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles over features like sideloading or hardware standards. While extreme events like global trade restrictions could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and Apple's production scale make a 2026 release the dominant consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,091End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing pattern of annual iPhone releases in September underpins the 99.1% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this cadence for over a decade despite supply chain pressures, with recent iPhone 16 and 17 cycles showing no deviations in planning or component sourcing. Traders see minimal risk of slippage absent major disruptions such as severe semiconductor shortages or regulatory hurdles over features like sideloading or hardware standards. While extreme events like global trade restrictions could theoretically intervene, historical precedent and Apple's production scale make a 2026 release the dominant consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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