Traders assign "No" a 99.5% implied probability for Phoebe Gates' arrest by September 30 because no charges, warrants, or official investigations have been announced despite intense scrutiny of her Phia startup's alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Bloomberg reporting and legal analysts note that while the affiliate-marketing tactics could theoretically qualify as wire fraud, such cases typically resolve through civil lawsuits, restitution, or regulatory fines rather than swift criminal prosecution—especially for a first-time offender with no prior record. The one-month window to resolution and absence of precursor signals from law enforcement further reinforce the market consensus. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen enforcement action tied to unreported evidence, though experts view that outcome as improbable given the civil tilt of similar past cases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Phoebe Gates be arrested by September 30?
Will Phoebe Gates be arrested by September 30?
<1% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign "No" a 99.5% implied probability for Phoebe Gates' arrest by September 30 because no charges, warrants, or official investigations have been announced despite intense scrutiny of her Phia startup's alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Bloomberg reporting and legal analysts note that while the affiliate-marketing tactics could theoretically qualify as wire fraud, such cases typically resolve through civil lawsuits, restitution, or regulatory fines rather than swift criminal prosecution—especially for a first-time offender with no prior record. The one-month window to resolution and absence of precursor signals from law enforcement further reinforce the market consensus. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen enforcement action tied to unreported evidence, though experts view that outcome as improbable given the civil tilt of similar past cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:59 PM ET
Volume
$198End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign "No" a 99.5% implied probability for Phoebe Gates' arrest by September 30 because no charges, warrants, or official investigations have been announced despite intense scrutiny of her Phia startup's alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Bloomberg reporting and legal analysts note that while the affiliate-marketing tactics could theoretically qualify as wire fraud, such cases typically resolve through civil lawsuits, restitution, or regulatory fines rather than swift criminal prosecution—especially for a first-time offender with no prior record. The one-month window to resolution and absence of precursor signals from law enforcement further reinforce the market consensus. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen enforcement action tied to unreported evidence, though experts view that outcome as improbable given the civil tilt of similar past cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$198End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign "No" a 99.5% implied probability for Phoebe Gates' arrest by September 30 because no charges, warrants, or official investigations have been announced despite intense scrutiny of her Phia startup's alleged cookie-stuffing practices. Bloomberg reporting and legal analysts note that while the affiliate-marketing tactics could theoretically qualify as wire fraud, such cases typically resolve through civil lawsuits, restitution, or regulatory fines rather than swift criminal prosecution—especially for a first-time offender with no prior record. The one-month window to resolution and absence of precursor signals from law enforcement further reinforce the market consensus. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen enforcement action tied to unreported evidence, though experts view that outcome as improbable given the civil tilt of similar past cases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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