**The market's overwhelming 95% consensus on the 800-900 million domestic bracket reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million opening weekend and rapid early milestones, tempered by its now-maturing run just days before the August 31 cutoff.** Released July 31, the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Tom Holland/Zendaya film crossed $800 million domestically in a record 19 days and reached roughly $863 million as of August 25-26, with daily grosses having slowed into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays after strong initial legs. This positioning aligns with typical superhero sequel trajectories: massive front-loaded performance driven by pre-sales, IMAX expansion, and cultural anticipation, followed by predictable deceleration once the novelty fades. An upset into the 900 million-plus range would require sustained holds well above current trends through the final weekend—unlikely given the four-week mark and absence of major marketing catalysts or competition shifts. Lower brackets remain negligible due to the film's already-secured totals and historical precedent for films of this scale. Traders are pricing in the near-certainty of resolution inside the current band based on verifiable daily tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
800 - 900m 95%
900m+ 4.9%
<400m <1%
400 - 500m <1%
$1,934,792 Vol.
$1,934,792 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<400m
<1%
400 - 500m
<1%
500 - 600m
<1%
600 - 700m
<1%
700 - 800m
<1%
800 - 900m
95%
900m+
5%
800 - 900m 95%
900m+ 4.9%
<400m <1%
400 - 500m <1%
$1,934,792 Vol.
$1,934,792 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<400m
$47,252 Vol.
<1%
400 - 500m
$33,007 Vol.
<1%
500 - 600m
$28,826 Vol.
<1%
600 - 700m
$43,596 Vol.
<1%
700 - 800m
$127,092 Vol.
<1%
800 - 900m
$517,239 Vol.
95%
900m+
$1,137,780 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**The market's overwhelming 95% consensus on the 800-900 million domestic bracket reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million opening weekend and rapid early milestones, tempered by its now-maturing run just days before the August 31 cutoff.** Released July 31, the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Tom Holland/Zendaya film crossed $800 million domestically in a record 19 days and reached roughly $863 million as of August 25-26, with daily grosses having slowed into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays after strong initial legs.
This positioning aligns with typical superhero sequel trajectories: massive front-loaded performance driven by pre-sales, IMAX expansion, and cultural anticipation, followed by predictable deceleration once the novelty fades. An upset into the 900 million-plus range would require sustained holds well above current trends through the final weekend—unlikely given the four-week mark and absence of major marketing catalysts or competition shifts. Lower brackets remain negligible due to the film's already-secured totals and historical precedent for films of this scale. Traders are pricing in the near-certainty of resolution inside the current band based on verifiable daily tracking.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,934,792End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**The market's overwhelming 95% consensus on the 800-900 million domestic bracket reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million opening weekend and rapid early milestones, tempered by its now-maturing run just days before the August 31 cutoff.** Released July 31, the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Tom Holland/Zendaya film crossed $800 million domestically in a record 19 days and reached roughly $863 million as of August 25-26, with daily grosses having slowed into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays after strong initial legs.
This positioning aligns with typical superhero sequel trajectories: massive front-loaded performance driven by pre-sales, IMAX expansion, and cultural anticipation, followed by predictable deceleration once the novelty fades. An upset into the 900 million-plus range would require sustained holds well above current trends through the final weekend—unlikely given the four-week mark and absence of major marketing catalysts or competition shifts. Lower brackets remain negligible due to the film's already-secured totals and historical precedent for films of this scale. Traders are pricing in the near-certainty of resolution inside the current band based on verifiable daily tracking.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,934,792End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The market's overwhelming 95% consensus on the 800-900 million domestic bracket reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record $360 million opening weekend and rapid early milestones, tempered by its now-maturing run just days before the August 31 cutoff.** Released July 31, the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Tom Holland/Zendaya film crossed $800 million domestically in a record 19 days and reached roughly $863 million as of August 25-26, with daily grosses having slowed into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays after strong initial legs. This positioning aligns with typical superhero sequel trajectories: massive front-loaded performance driven by pre-sales, IMAX expansion, and cultural anticipation, followed by predictable deceleration once the novelty fades. An upset into the 900 million-plus range would require sustained holds well above current trends through the final weekend—unlikely given the four-week mark and absence of major marketing catalysts or competition shifts. Lower brackets remain negligible due to the film's already-secured totals and historical precedent for films of this scale. Traders are pricing in the near-certainty of resolution inside the current band based on verifiable daily tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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