**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and has since delivered one of the strongest theatrical runs in history, crossing $800 million in just 19 days and reaching roughly $863 million by August 25–26. This pace has already placed it second on the all-time domestic chart, ahead of *Avengers: Endgame*. With only a handful of days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, however, daily grosses have fallen into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays and low teens on weekends. Adding the roughly $37 million still needed to reach $900 million in that short window is highly improbable given the steep decline curve typical for even the biggest blockbusters at this stage. Trader consensus at 95% for under $900 million reflects this late-run reality, with only a narrow path for an upset if an unusually strong Labor Day holiday bump materializes or if tracking has understated the film’s final hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 95%
900 - 920m 5%
920 - 940m <1%
1080m+ <1%
$490,409 Vol.
$490,409 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
95%
900 - 920m
5%
920 - 940m
<1%
940 - 960m
<1%
960 - 980m
<1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
<1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
<1%
<900m 95%
900 - 920m 5%
920 - 940m <1%
1080m+ <1%
$490,409 Vol.
$490,409 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$122,781 Vol.
95%
900 - 920m
$107,818 Vol.
5%
920 - 940m
$44,638 Vol.
<1%
940 - 960m
$29,584 Vol.
<1%
960 - 980m
$20,264 Vol.
<1%
980 - 1000m
$8,360 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$3,789 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$1,764 Vol.
<1%
1040 - 1060m
$837 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$873 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$149,701 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and has since delivered one of the strongest theatrical runs in history, crossing $800 million in just 19 days and reaching roughly $863 million by August 25–26. This pace has already placed it second on the all-time domestic chart, ahead of *Avengers: Endgame*.
With only a handful of days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, however, daily grosses have fallen into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays and low teens on weekends. Adding the roughly $37 million still needed to reach $900 million in that short window is highly improbable given the steep decline curve typical for even the biggest blockbusters at this stage.
Trader consensus at 95% for under $900 million reflects this late-run reality, with only a narrow path for an upset if an unusually strong Labor Day holiday bump materializes or if tracking has understated the film’s final hold.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$490,409End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and has since delivered one of the strongest theatrical runs in history, crossing $800 million in just 19 days and reaching roughly $863 million by August 25–26. This pace has already placed it second on the all-time domestic chart, ahead of *Avengers: Endgame*.
With only a handful of days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, however, daily grosses have fallen into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays and low teens on weekends. Adding the roughly $37 million still needed to reach $900 million in that short window is highly improbable given the steep decline curve typical for even the biggest blockbusters at this stage.
Trader consensus at 95% for under $900 million reflects this late-run reality, with only a narrow path for an upset if an unusually strong Labor Day holiday bump materializes or if tracking has understated the film’s final hold.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$490,409End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and has since delivered one of the strongest theatrical runs in history, crossing $800 million in just 19 days and reaching roughly $863 million by August 25–26. This pace has already placed it second on the all-time domestic chart, ahead of *Avengers: Endgame*. With only a handful of days remaining until the August 31 cutoff, however, daily grosses have fallen into the low-to-mid single-digit millions on weekdays and low teens on weekends. Adding the roughly $37 million still needed to reach $900 million in that short window is highly improbable given the steep decline curve typical for even the biggest blockbusters at this stage. Trader consensus at 95% for under $900 million reflects this late-run reality, with only a narrow path for an upset if an unusually strong Labor Day holiday bump materializes or if tracking has understated the film’s final hold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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