**Strong audience retention and a favorable competitive landscape are anchoring trader consensus around a 22-24 million fifth-weekend gross for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*.** The film opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July and has maintained solid holds, posting drops of 60%, 51%, and 45% over the prior three weekends while crossing $800 million in just 19 days—the fastest ever. With a 2.4x multiplier through weekend four ($39 million) and legs tracking ahead of most recent MCU entries, the implied probability favors a roughly 40% decline into the low-to-mid 20s. Positive critical reception (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an A CinemaScore continue to support word-of-mouth, while the absence of major new wide releases this frame limits cannibalization. Labor Day weekend looms as the next key catalyst after the Aug. 28-30 frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
22-24m 60%
20-22m 26%
24-26m 10%
<20m 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<20m
7%
20-22m
26%
22-24m
60%
24-26m
10%
26m+
4%
22-24m 60%
20-22m 26%
24-26m 10%
<20m 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<20m
$1,897 Vol.
7%
20-22m
$876 Vol.
26%
22-24m
$2,083 Vol.
60%
24-26m
$1,035 Vol.
10%
26m+
$1,052 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong audience retention and a favorable competitive landscape are anchoring trader consensus around a 22-24 million fifth-weekend gross for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*.**
The film opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July and has maintained solid holds, posting drops of 60%, 51%, and 45% over the prior three weekends while crossing $800 million in just 19 days—the fastest ever. With a 2.4x multiplier through weekend four ($39 million) and legs tracking ahead of most recent MCU entries, the implied probability favors a roughly 40% decline into the low-to-mid 20s. Positive critical reception (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an A CinemaScore continue to support word-of-mouth, while the absence of major new wide releases this frame limits cannibalization. Labor Day weekend looms as the next key catalyst after the Aug. 28-30 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$6,943End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong audience retention and a favorable competitive landscape are anchoring trader consensus around a 22-24 million fifth-weekend gross for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*.**
The film opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July and has maintained solid holds, posting drops of 60%, 51%, and 45% over the prior three weekends while crossing $800 million in just 19 days—the fastest ever. With a 2.4x multiplier through weekend four ($39 million) and legs tracking ahead of most recent MCU entries, the implied probability favors a roughly 40% decline into the low-to-mid 20s. Positive critical reception (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an A CinemaScore continue to support word-of-mouth, while the absence of major new wide releases this frame limits cannibalization. Labor Day weekend looms as the next key catalyst after the Aug. 28-30 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$6,943End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong audience retention and a favorable competitive landscape are anchoring trader consensus around a 22-24 million fifth-weekend gross for *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*.** The film opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July and has maintained solid holds, posting drops of 60%, 51%, and 45% over the prior three weekends while crossing $800 million in just 19 days—the fastest ever. With a 2.4x multiplier through weekend four ($39 million) and legs tracking ahead of most recent MCU entries, the implied probability favors a roughly 40% decline into the low-to-mid 20s. Positive critical reception (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an A CinemaScore continue to support word-of-mouth, while the absence of major new wide releases this frame limits cannibalization. Labor Day weekend looms as the next key catalyst after the Aug. 28-30 frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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