Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026 with an installed line capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the ramp remains in its early, deliberately slow phase as confirmed in quarterly updates. The September 3 Austin launch event centers on integrating the steering-wheel-free vehicle into Tesla's existing robotaxi service for employee and public rides rather than opening retail orders. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target price for individual buyers, but regulatory validation of unsupervised full self-driving on the dedicated platform, geofencing limits, and the company's emphasis on fleet economics over private sales have kept meaningful retail deliveries off the 2026 calendar. Traders assign only low-teens probability to a qualifying public sale by year-end, reflecting the gap between production milestones and the stricter criteria for customer ownership.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$51,809 Vol.
$51,809 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$51,809 Vol.
$51,809 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026 with an installed line capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the ramp remains in its early, deliberately slow phase as confirmed in quarterly updates. The September 3 Austin launch event centers on integrating the steering-wheel-free vehicle into Tesla's existing robotaxi service for employee and public rides rather than opening retail orders. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target price for individual buyers, but regulatory validation of unsupervised full self-driving on the dedicated platform, geofencing limits, and the company's emphasis on fleet economics over private sales have kept meaningful retail deliveries off the 2026 calendar. Traders assign only low-teens probability to a qualifying public sale by year-end, reflecting the gap between production milestones and the stricter criteria for customer ownership.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$51,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026 with an installed line capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the ramp remains in its early, deliberately slow phase as confirmed in quarterly updates. The September 3 Austin launch event centers on integrating the steering-wheel-free vehicle into Tesla's existing robotaxi service for employee and public rides rather than opening retail orders. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target price for individual buyers, but regulatory validation of unsupervised full self-driving on the dedicated platform, geofencing limits, and the company's emphasis on fleet economics over private sales have kept meaningful retail deliveries off the 2026 calendar. Traders assign only low-teens probability to a qualifying public sale by year-end, reflecting the gap between production milestones and the stricter criteria for customer ownership.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab entered limited production at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026 with an installed line capacity above 125,000 units annually, yet the ramp remains in its early, deliberately slow phase as confirmed in quarterly updates. The September 3 Austin launch event centers on integrating the steering-wheel-free vehicle into Tesla's existing robotaxi service for employee and public rides rather than opening retail orders. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 target price for individual buyers, but regulatory validation of unsupervised full self-driving on the dedicated platform, geofencing limits, and the company's emphasis on fleet economics over private sales have kept meaningful retail deliveries off the 2026 calendar. Traders assign only low-teens probability to a qualifying public sale by year-end, reflecting the gap between production milestones and the stricter criteria for customer ownership.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions