Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, combined with an initial focus on employee rides and fleet robotaxi deployment rather than retail sales, underpins the 87% market-implied probability against a genuine customer purchase at $30,000 or less this year. Pilot production began in February 2026 with hundreds of units observed, yet Tesla has described the early ramp as agonizingly slow and omitted prior volume-production guidance from its Q2 update. The two-seat vehicle lacks steering controls, restricting it to validated geofenced areas, while the September 3 Austin launch event is expected to prioritize service integration over individual orders. Musk has reiterated sub-$30,000 pricing targets and confirmed customer sales before 2027, but the strict resolution criteria—excluding prototypes, deposits, or fleet units—leave little time for a completed public transaction by year-end amid ongoing autonomy validation and regulatory constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$51,809 Vol.
$51,809 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
13% chance
$51,809 Vol.
$51,809 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, combined with an initial focus on employee rides and fleet robotaxi deployment rather than retail sales, underpins the 87% market-implied probability against a genuine customer purchase at $30,000 or less this year. Pilot production began in February 2026 with hundreds of units observed, yet Tesla has described the early ramp as agonizingly slow and omitted prior volume-production guidance from its Q2 update. The two-seat vehicle lacks steering controls, restricting it to validated geofenced areas, while the September 3 Austin launch event is expected to prioritize service integration over individual orders. Musk has reiterated sub-$30,000 pricing targets and confirmed customer sales before 2027, but the strict resolution criteria—excluding prototypes, deposits, or fleet units—leave little time for a completed public transaction by year-end amid ongoing autonomy validation and regulatory constraints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$51,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, combined with an initial focus on employee rides and fleet robotaxi deployment rather than retail sales, underpins the 87% market-implied probability against a genuine customer purchase at $30,000 or less this year. Pilot production began in February 2026 with hundreds of units observed, yet Tesla has described the early ramp as agonizingly slow and omitted prior volume-production guidance from its Q2 update. The two-seat vehicle lacks steering controls, restricting it to validated geofenced areas, while the September 3 Austin launch event is expected to prioritize service integration over individual orders. Musk has reiterated sub-$30,000 pricing targets and confirmed customer sales before 2027, but the strict resolution criteria—excluding prototypes, deposits, or fleet units—leave little time for a completed public transaction by year-end amid ongoing autonomy validation and regulatory constraints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,809End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, combined with an initial focus on employee rides and fleet robotaxi deployment rather than retail sales, underpins the 87% market-implied probability against a genuine customer purchase at $30,000 or less this year. Pilot production began in February 2026 with hundreds of units observed, yet Tesla has described the early ramp as agonizingly slow and omitted prior volume-production guidance from its Q2 update. The two-seat vehicle lacks steering controls, restricting it to validated geofenced areas, while the September 3 Austin launch event is expected to prioritize service integration over individual orders. Musk has reiterated sub-$30,000 pricing targets and confirmed customer sales before 2027, but the strict resolution criteria—excluding prototypes, deposits, or fleet units—leave little time for a completed public transaction by year-end amid ongoing autonomy validation and regulatory constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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