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Politics·Africa

Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner

icon for Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Politics·Africa

Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner

Dauda Lawal 88%

Mahadi Aliyu Gusau 7%

Hamza Musa Mai Bulawus 3.6%

Ahmed Yahuza 3.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Dauda Lawal 88%

Mahadi Aliyu Gusau 7%

Hamza Musa Mai Bulawus 3.6%

Ahmed Yahuza 3.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Dauda Lawal

Dauda Lawal

$1,496 Vol.

88%

icon for Mahadi Aliyu Gusau

Mahadi Aliyu Gusau

$53 Vol.

7%

icon for Hamza Musa Mai Bulawus

Hamza Musa Mai Bulawus

$47 Vol.

4%

icon for Ahmed Yahuza

Ahmed Yahuza

$119 Vol.

3%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zamfara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Dauda Lawal holds a dominant position in the Zamfara 2027 gubernatorial race as the incumbent governor and APC consensus candidate, with traders assigning him an 88% implied probability. Lawal, who won the 2023 election on the PDP ticket by defeating incumbent Bello Matawalle, defected to the APC in early 2026 amid PDP internal crises. He secured the APC nomination unopposed in May 2026 through a consensus affirmation process across all 14 local government areas, receiving 301,893 votes under INEC oversight. This consolidation behind the ruling party, combined with Lawal’s record on security operations against banditry and infrastructure investments, underpins the strong market positioning. Lower probabilities for figures such as Mahadi Aliyu Gusau (6.5% on ADC) and other aspirants reflect fragmented opposition and limited momentum for alternative candidacies ahead of the February 2027 vote.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zamfara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$1,714
End Date
Feb 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zamfara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zamfara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Dauda Lawal holds a dominant position in the Zamfara 2027 gubernatorial race as the incumbent governor and APC consensus candidate, with traders assigning him an 88% implied probability. Lawal, who won the 2023 election on the PDP ticket by defeating incumbent Bello Matawalle, defected to the APC in early 2026 amid PDP internal crises. He secured the APC nomination unopposed in May 2026 through a consensus affirmation process across all 14 local government areas, receiving 301,893 votes under INEC oversight. This consolidation behind the ruling party, combined with Lawal’s record on security operations against banditry and infrastructure investments, underpins the strong market positioning. Lower probabilities for figures such as Mahadi Aliyu Gusau (6.5% on ADC) and other aspirants reflect fragmented opposition and limited momentum for alternative candidacies ahead of the February 2027 vote.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zamfara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$1,714
End Date
Feb 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zamfara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dauda Lawal" at 88%, followed by "Mahadi Aliyu Gusau" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner" is "Dauda Lawal" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mahadi Aliyu Gusau" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Zamfara, Nigeria Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.