Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting the FGV Monitor do PIB’s 0.3% estimate and analyst consensus for moderation after Q1’s 1.1% expansion. Restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 14.25%, has weighed on investment and domestic demand despite record-low unemployment of 5.3% in the July quarter. A widened July current-account deficit and softer corporate earnings underscore the drag from elevated borrowing costs, while resilient exports and household consumption provide limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with traders viewing the narrow 0.3%–0.5% range as the most probable outcome given these headwinds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 71.6%
0.6%–0.8% 18.3%
0.0%–0.2% 8.0%
<0.0% <1%
$61,287 Vol.
$61,287 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
8%
0.3%–0.5%
72%
0.6%–0.8%
18%
0.9%–1.1%
1%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 71.6%
0.6%–0.8% 18.3%
0.0%–0.2% 8.0%
<0.0% <1%
$61,287 Vol.
$61,287 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,786 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$4,022 Vol.
8%
0.3%–0.5%
$27,847 Vol.
72%
0.6%–0.8%
$16,487 Vol.
18%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,686 Vol.
1%
1.2%–1.4%
$3,261 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$1,198 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting the FGV Monitor do PIB’s 0.3% estimate and analyst consensus for moderation after Q1’s 1.1% expansion. Restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 14.25%, has weighed on investment and domestic demand despite record-low unemployment of 5.3% in the July quarter. A widened July current-account deficit and softer corporate earnings underscore the drag from elevated borrowing costs, while resilient exports and household consumption provide limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with traders viewing the narrow 0.3%–0.5% range as the most probable outcome given these headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$61,287End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting the FGV Monitor do PIB’s 0.3% estimate and analyst consensus for moderation after Q1’s 1.1% expansion. Restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 14.25%, has weighed on investment and domestic demand despite record-low unemployment of 5.3% in the July quarter. A widened July current-account deficit and softer corporate earnings underscore the drag from elevated borrowing costs, while resilient exports and household consumption provide limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with traders viewing the narrow 0.3%–0.5% range as the most probable outcome given these headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$61,287End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting the FGV Monitor do PIB’s 0.3% estimate and analyst consensus for moderation after Q1’s 1.1% expansion. Restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 14.25%, has weighed on investment and domestic demand despite record-low unemployment of 5.3% in the July quarter. A widened July current-account deficit and softer corporate earnings underscore the drag from elevated borrowing costs, while resilient exports and household consumption provide limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with traders viewing the narrow 0.3%–0.5% range as the most probable outcome given these headwinds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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