**Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting consensus around modest expansion after Q1's stronger 1.1% print.** Preliminary indicators released in mid-August align closely with this range: the Central Bank's IBC-Br activity index showed 0.2% QoQ growth, while the FGV Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3%, both seasonally adjusted. These proxies highlight positive contributions from industry and agriculture alongside a slight contraction in services, with household consumption supported by a record-low unemployment rate of 5.3% in the three months through July and elevated formal employment. Elevated Selic rates continue to weigh on investment and real income growth, tempering momentum from the prior quarter's government spending and consumption drivers. A widening current-account deficit to $8.11 billion in July signals external pressures but has not yet altered the near-term growth trajectory. The official IBGE quarterly national accounts release on September 1 remains the resolution trigger; any material deviation from the 0.2%–0.4% proxy cluster would likely shift the distribution among the narrower bands. Trader positioning thus embeds a base-case scenario of continued but decelerating expansion amid tight monetary policy and resilient labor conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 71.6%
0.6%–0.8% 15.9%
0.0%–0.2% 12.6%
<0.0% 3.1%
$61,292 Vol.
$61,292 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
3%
0.0%–0.2%
13%
0.3%–0.5%
72%
0.6%–0.8%
16%
0.9%–1.1%
1%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 71.6%
0.6%–0.8% 15.9%
0.0%–0.2% 12.6%
<0.0% 3.1%
$61,292 Vol.
$61,292 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,790 Vol.
3%
0.0%–0.2%
$4,022 Vol.
13%
0.3%–0.5%
$27,848 Vol.
72%
0.6%–0.8%
$16,487 Vol.
16%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,686 Vol.
1%
1.2%–1.4%
$3,261 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$1,198 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting consensus around modest expansion after Q1's stronger 1.1% print.** Preliminary indicators released in mid-August align closely with this range: the Central Bank's IBC-Br activity index showed 0.2% QoQ growth, while the FGV Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3%, both seasonally adjusted. These proxies highlight positive contributions from industry and agriculture alongside a slight contraction in services, with household consumption supported by a record-low unemployment rate of 5.3% in the three months through July and elevated formal employment.
Elevated Selic rates continue to weigh on investment and real income growth, tempering momentum from the prior quarter's government spending and consumption drivers. A widening current-account deficit to $8.11 billion in July signals external pressures but has not yet altered the near-term growth trajectory. The official IBGE quarterly national accounts release on September 1 remains the resolution trigger; any material deviation from the 0.2%–0.4% proxy cluster would likely shift the distribution among the narrower bands. Trader positioning thus embeds a base-case scenario of continued but decelerating expansion amid tight monetary policy and resilient labor conditions.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$61,292End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting consensus around modest expansion after Q1's stronger 1.1% print.** Preliminary indicators released in mid-August align closely with this range: the Central Bank's IBC-Br activity index showed 0.2% QoQ growth, while the FGV Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3%, both seasonally adjusted. These proxies highlight positive contributions from industry and agriculture alongside a slight contraction in services, with household consumption supported by a record-low unemployment rate of 5.3% in the three months through July and elevated formal employment.
Elevated Selic rates continue to weigh on investment and real income growth, tempering momentum from the prior quarter's government spending and consumption drivers. A widening current-account deficit to $8.11 billion in July signals external pressures but has not yet altered the near-term growth trajectory. The official IBGE quarterly national accounts release on September 1 remains the resolution trigger; any material deviation from the 0.2%–0.4% proxy cluster would likely shift the distribution among the narrower bands. Trader positioning thus embeds a base-case scenario of continued but decelerating expansion amid tight monetary policy and resilient labor conditions.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$61,292End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band at 71.7% implied probability, reflecting consensus around modest expansion after Q1's stronger 1.1% print.** Preliminary indicators released in mid-August align closely with this range: the Central Bank's IBC-Br activity index showed 0.2% QoQ growth, while the FGV Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3%, both seasonally adjusted. These proxies highlight positive contributions from industry and agriculture alongside a slight contraction in services, with household consumption supported by a record-low unemployment rate of 5.3% in the three months through July and elevated formal employment. Elevated Selic rates continue to weigh on investment and real income growth, tempering momentum from the prior quarter's government spending and consumption drivers. A widening current-account deficit to $8.11 billion in July signals external pressures but has not yet altered the near-term growth trajectory. The official IBGE quarterly national accounts release on September 1 remains the resolution trigger; any material deviation from the 0.2%–0.4% proxy cluster would likely shift the distribution among the narrower bands. Trader positioning thus embeds a base-case scenario of continued but decelerating expansion amid tight monetary policy and resilient labor conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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