Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Democratic lean reflected in its D+14 partisan voting index and consistent “solid” or “safe” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Sherman’s long tenure, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable victory. Thompson’s campaign has trailed significantly in resources and visibility. Late developments such as a major scandal, acute health event, or unusually strong Republican midterm surge would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-32 House Election Winner
CA-32 House Election Winner
$25,203 Vol.
$25,203 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
1%
$25,203 Vol.
$25,203 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,768 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$13,435 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Democratic lean reflected in its D+14 partisan voting index and consistent “solid” or “safe” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Sherman’s long tenure, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable victory. Thompson’s campaign has trailed significantly in resources and visibility. Late developments such as a major scandal, acute health event, or unusually strong Republican midterm surge would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$25,203End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Democratic lean reflected in its D+14 partisan voting index and consistent “solid” or “safe” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Sherman’s long tenure, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable victory. Thompson’s campaign has trailed significantly in resources and visibility. Late developments such as a major scandal, acute health event, or unusually strong Republican midterm surge would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,203End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Democratic lean reflected in its D+14 partisan voting index and consistent “solid” or “safe” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Sherman’s long tenure, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations have reinforced trader expectations of a comfortable victory. Thompson’s campaign has trailed significantly in resources and visibility. Late developments such as a major scandal, acute health event, or unusually strong Republican midterm surge would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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