Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, combined with a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range—with three dissents favoring a hike—shifted focus to September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions, where incoming CPI and employment data will dictate whether the Committee maintains its restrictive policy or adjusts. This dynamic supports the 60% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes, which encompass hikes, while the 34% on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects consensus that data-dependent caution and proximity to midterms limit aggressive easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 60%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,475 Vol.
$730,475 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
60%
Other 60%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,475 Vol.
$730,475 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,054 Vol.
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,277 Vol.
<1%
Other
$316,175 Vol.
60%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, combined with a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range—with three dissents favoring a hike—shifted focus to September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions, where incoming CPI and employment data will dictate whether the Committee maintains its restrictive policy or adjusts. This dynamic supports the 60% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes, which encompass hikes, while the 34% on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects consensus that data-dependent caution and proximity to midterms limit aggressive easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$730,475End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, combined with a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range—with three dissents favoring a hike—shifted focus to September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions, where incoming CPI and employment data will dictate whether the Committee maintains its restrictive policy or adjusts. This dynamic supports the 60% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes, which encompass hikes, while the 34% on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects consensus that data-dependent caution and proximity to midterms limit aggressive easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$730,475End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price pressures and Middle East supply shocks, combined with a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh, has anchored trader expectations for the July–October FOMC sequence. The July 29 hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range—with three dissents favoring a hike—shifted focus to September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions, where incoming CPI and employment data will dictate whether the Committee maintains its restrictive policy or adjusts. This dynamic supports the 60% market-implied probability on “Other” outcomes, which encompass hikes, while the 34% on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects consensus that data-dependent caution and proximity to midterms limit aggressive easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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