**Trader sentiment on the Fed's July–October 2026 decisions remains closely balanced, with the implied probability of three consecutive holds (Pause–Pause–Pause) at 53% versus 43.5% for “Other” paths.** The July FOMC meeting delivered a 9–3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range amid three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from energy prices and strong AI-related demand despite moderating core PCE readings. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept oil volatility elevated, supporting hawkish rhetoric, while labor-market cooling and soft July PPI data have tempered immediate hike expectations. Markets now assign meaningful odds to a September or October move, with the September meeting’s updated projections serving as the next key catalyst. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether inflation reacceleration or growth resilience will prompt a policy shift before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 54%
Other 44%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$727,874 Vol.
$727,874 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
54%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
44%
Pause–Pause–Pause 54%
Other 44%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$727,874 Vol.
$727,874 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$240,025 Vol.
54%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,109 Vol.
<1%
Other
$314,770 Vol.
44%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader sentiment on the Fed's July–October 2026 decisions remains closely balanced, with the implied probability of three consecutive holds (Pause–Pause–Pause) at 53% versus 43.5% for “Other” paths.** The July FOMC meeting delivered a 9–3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range amid three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from energy prices and strong AI-related demand despite moderating core PCE readings. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept oil volatility elevated, supporting hawkish rhetoric, while labor-market cooling and soft July PPI data have tempered immediate hike expectations. Markets now assign meaningful odds to a September or October move, with the September meeting’s updated projections serving as the next key catalyst. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether inflation reacceleration or growth resilience will prompt a policy shift before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$727,874End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Trader sentiment on the Fed's July–October 2026 decisions remains closely balanced, with the implied probability of three consecutive holds (Pause–Pause–Pause) at 53% versus 43.5% for “Other” paths.** The July FOMC meeting delivered a 9–3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range amid three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from energy prices and strong AI-related demand despite moderating core PCE readings. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept oil volatility elevated, supporting hawkish rhetoric, while labor-market cooling and soft July PPI data have tempered immediate hike expectations. Markets now assign meaningful odds to a September or October move, with the September meeting’s updated projections serving as the next key catalyst. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether inflation reacceleration or growth resilience will prompt a policy shift before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$727,874End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment on the Fed's July–October 2026 decisions remains closely balanced, with the implied probability of three consecutive holds (Pause–Pause–Pause) at 53% versus 43.5% for “Other” paths.** The July FOMC meeting delivered a 9–3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range amid three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from energy prices and strong AI-related demand despite moderating core PCE readings. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept oil volatility elevated, supporting hawkish rhetoric, while labor-market cooling and soft July PPI data have tempered immediate hike expectations. Markets now assign meaningful odds to a September or October move, with the September meeting’s updated projections serving as the next key catalyst. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether inflation reacceleration or growth resilience will prompt a policy shift before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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