Persistent high pressure across Central Texas sustained well-above-normal temperatures on August 26, with National Weather Service observations and model guidance confirming a peak of 102–103 °F at Austin-area stations under mostly clear skies and light winds. Late-summer climatology favors such heat when the subtropical ridge remains entrenched, limiting moisture and allowing strong daytime heating; recent weeks of triple-digit readings further aligned trader consensus with this outcome. A sudden increase in cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, or a stronger-than-expected frontal passage could have lowered maxima below the bin, though none materialized in official data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 26?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 26?
102-103°F 100.0%
95°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
$27,149 Vol.
$27,149 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
Yes
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
No
108-109°F
No
110-111°F
No
112-113°F
No
114°F or higher
No
102-103°F 100.0%
95°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
$27,149 Vol.
$27,149 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
$733 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$1,477 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$1,315 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$3,302 Vol.
No
102-103°F
$6,912 Vol.
Yes
104-105°F
$10,614 Vol.
No
106-107°F
$1,300 Vol.
No
108-109°F
$569 Vol.
No
110-111°F
$267 Vol.
No
112-113°F
$295 Vol.
No
114°F or higher
$365 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure across Central Texas sustained well-above-normal temperatures on August 26, with National Weather Service observations and model guidance confirming a peak of 102–103 °F at Austin-area stations under mostly clear skies and light winds. Late-summer climatology favors such heat when the subtropical ridge remains entrenched, limiting moisture and allowing strong daytime heating; recent weeks of triple-digit readings further aligned trader consensus with this outcome. A sudden increase in cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, or a stronger-than-expected frontal passage could have lowered maxima below the bin, though none materialized in official data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$27,149End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure across Central Texas sustained well-above-normal temperatures on August 26, with National Weather Service observations and model guidance confirming a peak of 102–103 °F at Austin-area stations under mostly clear skies and light winds. Late-summer climatology favors such heat when the subtropical ridge remains entrenched, limiting moisture and allowing strong daytime heating; recent weeks of triple-digit readings further aligned trader consensus with this outcome. A sudden increase in cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, or a stronger-than-expected frontal passage could have lowered maxima below the bin, though none materialized in official data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,149End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent high pressure across Central Texas sustained well-above-normal temperatures on August 26, with National Weather Service observations and model guidance confirming a peak of 102–103 °F at Austin-area stations under mostly clear skies and light winds. Late-summer climatology favors such heat when the subtropical ridge remains entrenched, limiting moisture and allowing strong daytime heating; recent weeks of triple-digit readings further aligned trader consensus with this outcome. A sudden increase in cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, or a stronger-than-expected frontal passage could have lowered maxima below the bin, though none materialized in official data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions