**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Austin on August 26, 2026, converged overwhelmingly on the 74–75°F bin (99.6% implied probability) due to official National Weather Service observations and model consensus confirming overnight lows in that narrow range.** Persistent high pressure and a strong southerly flow maintained above-average warmth through the night, limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry stations recorded a minimum of 75°F (around 5:59–6:32 AM local time), consistent with climatological expectations for late August when average lows hover near 72°F but recent days trended 2–4°F warmer amid the ongoing heat pattern. No cold fronts, significant moisture, or widespread cloud cover arrived to drive temperatures into the low 70s or below. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of real-time forecasts and early station data rather than speculation. Realistic challengers would have required an unforecasted frontal passage or heavy overnight rain—neither of which materialized in the final model runs or observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 26?
74-75°F 99.6%
71°F or below 1.0%
72-73°F 1.0%
82-83°F 1.0%
$1,694 Vol.
$1,694 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
100%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 99.6%
71°F or below 1.0%
72-73°F 1.0%
82-83°F 1.0%
$1,694 Vol.
$1,694 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
$56 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$45 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$420 Vol.
100%
76-77°F
$237 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$233 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$70 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$283 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$50 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$20 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$232 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$50 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Austin on August 26, 2026, converged overwhelmingly on the 74–75°F bin (99.6% implied probability) due to official National Weather Service observations and model consensus confirming overnight lows in that narrow range.**
Persistent high pressure and a strong southerly flow maintained above-average warmth through the night, limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry stations recorded a minimum of 75°F (around 5:59–6:32 AM local time), consistent with climatological expectations for late August when average lows hover near 72°F but recent days trended 2–4°F warmer amid the ongoing heat pattern. No cold fronts, significant moisture, or widespread cloud cover arrived to drive temperatures into the low 70s or below.
This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of real-time forecasts and early station data rather than speculation. Realistic challengers would have required an unforecasted frontal passage or heavy overnight rain—neither of which materialized in the final model runs or observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,694End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Austin on August 26, 2026, converged overwhelmingly on the 74–75°F bin (99.6% implied probability) due to official National Weather Service observations and model consensus confirming overnight lows in that narrow range.**
Persistent high pressure and a strong southerly flow maintained above-average warmth through the night, limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry stations recorded a minimum of 75°F (around 5:59–6:32 AM local time), consistent with climatological expectations for late August when average lows hover near 72°F but recent days trended 2–4°F warmer amid the ongoing heat pattern. No cold fronts, significant moisture, or widespread cloud cover arrived to drive temperatures into the low 70s or below.
This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of real-time forecasts and early station data rather than speculation. Realistic challengers would have required an unforecasted frontal passage or heavy overnight rain—neither of which materialized in the final model runs or observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,694End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Austin on August 26, 2026, converged overwhelmingly on the 74–75°F bin (99.6% implied probability) due to official National Weather Service observations and model consensus confirming overnight lows in that narrow range.** Persistent high pressure and a strong southerly flow maintained above-average warmth through the night, limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry stations recorded a minimum of 75°F (around 5:59–6:32 AM local time), consistent with climatological expectations for late August when average lows hover near 72°F but recent days trended 2–4°F warmer amid the ongoing heat pattern. No cold fronts, significant moisture, or widespread cloud cover arrived to drive temperatures into the low 70s or below. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of real-time forecasts and early station data rather than speculation. Realistic challengers would have required an unforecasted frontal passage or heavy overnight rain—neither of which materialized in the final model runs or observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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