SpaceX’s rapid Falcon 9 cadence, fueled by reusable boosters and Starlink constellation expansion, has positioned 13 launches as the clear market favorite at 85.5% implied probability. Multiple successful Starlink missions in mid-to-late August, including record-setting booster flights and the company’s 100th orbital launch of 2026, reflect consistent operations from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg without significant scrubs or weather disruptions. This pace aligns with historical patterns for the month while highlighting efficient turnaround times under two weeks for many vehicles. With only days left and one potential Falcon Heavy flight remaining, traders see little room for deviation to 14 or higher, keeping those outcomes in single digits.