**Traders see a closely contested outcome between fewer than five and five-to-six Starship launches reaching space in 2026 because only two V3 flights have succeeded so far this year, both achieving suborbital trajectories, Starlink V3 deployments, and intact ship recoveries.** Flight 13 on July 24 demonstrated reliable Raptor 3 engine performance, a functional payload dispenser, and improved heat-shield survivability after reentry, yet the Super Heavy booster again experienced engine-out issues during boostback and landing burns. Regulatory timelines, hardware recovery from the Indian Ocean, and SpaceX’s decision to defer tower-catch attempts have pushed Flight 14 into mid-September or later, with the first true orbital mission still pending. While the company targets rapid cadence growth to support expanded Starlink capacity and Artemis objectives, recent schedule slips and the need for repeated booster reuse validation create uncertainty around whether the remaining four months will yield two-to-four additional successful flights or fewer.