Iowa’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 following the retirement of longtime incumbent Randy Feenstra. Republican nominee Chris McGowan, the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president, and Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former prosecutor who won a three-way primary, head into the November 3 general election with an independent write-in candidate also on the ballot. All major race raters classify the contest as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The absence of an incumbent and limited post-primary polling have kept trader probabilities dispersed across Republican margin-of-victory buckets between 0–5% and 35%+, with a Democratic victory priced near 11%. Upcoming factors that could separate outcomes include turnout patterns in rural northwest Iowa counties, any late national political shifts, and the independent candidate’s potential impact on vote splitting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 20-25% 38%
Republican 25-30% 37%
Republican 0-5% 37%
Republican 30-35% 36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 35%+
29%
Republican 30-35%
36%
Republican 25-30%
37%
Republican 20-25%
38%
Republican 15-20%
31%
Republican 10-15%
28%
Republican 5-10%
29%
Republican 0-5%
37%
Democrat Wins
11%
Republican 20-25% 38%
Republican 25-30% 37%
Republican 0-5% 37%
Republican 30-35% 36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 35%+
$19 Vol.
29%
Republican 30-35%
$19 Vol.
36%
Republican 25-30%
$19 Vol.
37%
Republican 20-25%
$19 Vol.
38%
Republican 15-20%
$19 Vol.
31%
Republican 10-15%
$19 Vol.
28%
Republican 5-10%
$19 Vol.
29%
Republican 0-5%
$19 Vol.
37%
Democrat Wins
$34 Vol.
11%
The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 following the retirement of longtime incumbent Randy Feenstra. Republican nominee Chris McGowan, the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president, and Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former prosecutor who won a three-way primary, head into the November 3 general election with an independent write-in candidate also on the ballot. All major race raters classify the contest as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The absence of an incumbent and limited post-primary polling have kept trader probabilities dispersed across Republican margin-of-victory buckets between 0–5% and 35%+, with a Democratic victory priced near 11%. Upcoming factors that could separate outcomes include turnout patterns in rural northwest Iowa counties, any late national political shifts, and the independent candidate’s potential impact on vote splitting.
The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Volume
$188End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 following the retirement of longtime incumbent Randy Feenstra. Republican nominee Chris McGowan, the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president, and Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former prosecutor who won a three-way primary, head into the November 3 general election with an independent write-in candidate also on the ballot. All major race raters classify the contest as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The absence of an incumbent and limited post-primary polling have kept trader probabilities dispersed across Republican margin-of-victory buckets between 0–5% and 35%+, with a Democratic victory priced near 11%. Upcoming factors that could separate outcomes include turnout patterns in rural northwest Iowa counties, any late national political shifts, and the independent candidate’s potential impact on vote splitting.
The 2026 IA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$188End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iowa’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 following the retirement of longtime incumbent Randy Feenstra. Republican nominee Chris McGowan, the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president, and Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former prosecutor who won a three-way primary, head into the November 3 general election with an independent write-in candidate also on the ballot. All major race raters classify the contest as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles. The absence of an incumbent and limited post-primary polling have kept trader probabilities dispersed across Republican margin-of-victory buckets between 0–5% and 35%+, with a Democratic victory priced near 11%. Upcoming factors that could separate outcomes include turnout patterns in rural northwest Iowa counties, any late national political shifts, and the independent candidate’s potential impact on vote splitting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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