**Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly (161 of 300 seats), creating a high structural barrier to impeachment, which requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes to pass.** An opposition-backed petition calling for his removal collected over 100,000 signatures in June 2026, citing ongoing criminal cases and fitness concerns, yet it has little prospect of advancing given the ruling party’s control of committees and floor votes. Approval ratings have fallen steadily into the low 40s or below amid disputes over housing policy, prosecution reform, and local election administration, but these pressures have not produced cross-party momentum or legislative action. Lee’s trials remain suspended following his June 2025 inauguration, further limiting immediate triggers. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against impeachment before 2027, reflecting the institutional arithmetic and absence of recent escalatory developments that would overcome the Democratic Party’s parliamentary position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
9% chance
$21,566 Vol.
$21,566 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
$21,566 Vol.
$21,566 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly (161 of 300 seats), creating a high structural barrier to impeachment, which requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes to pass.** An opposition-backed petition calling for his removal collected over 100,000 signatures in June 2026, citing ongoing criminal cases and fitness concerns, yet it has little prospect of advancing given the ruling party’s control of committees and floor votes. Approval ratings have fallen steadily into the low 40s or below amid disputes over housing policy, prosecution reform, and local election administration, but these pressures have not produced cross-party momentum or legislative action. Lee’s trials remain suspended following his June 2025 inauguration, further limiting immediate triggers. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against impeachment before 2027, reflecting the institutional arithmetic and absence of recent escalatory developments that would overcome the Democratic Party’s parliamentary position.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$21,566End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly (161 of 300 seats), creating a high structural barrier to impeachment, which requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes to pass.** An opposition-backed petition calling for his removal collected over 100,000 signatures in June 2026, citing ongoing criminal cases and fitness concerns, yet it has little prospect of advancing given the ruling party’s control of committees and floor votes. Approval ratings have fallen steadily into the low 40s or below amid disputes over housing policy, prosecution reform, and local election administration, but these pressures have not produced cross-party momentum or legislative action. Lee’s trials remain suspended following his June 2025 inauguration, further limiting immediate triggers. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against impeachment before 2027, reflecting the institutional arithmetic and absence of recent escalatory developments that would overcome the Democratic Party’s parliamentary position.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,566End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly (161 of 300 seats), creating a high structural barrier to impeachment, which requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes to pass.** An opposition-backed petition calling for his removal collected over 100,000 signatures in June 2026, citing ongoing criminal cases and fitness concerns, yet it has little prospect of advancing given the ruling party’s control of committees and floor votes. Approval ratings have fallen steadily into the low 40s or below amid disputes over housing policy, prosecution reform, and local election administration, but these pressures have not produced cross-party momentum or legislative action. Lee’s trials remain suspended following his June 2025 inauguration, further limiting immediate triggers. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against impeachment before 2027, reflecting the institutional arithmetic and absence of recent escalatory developments that would overcome the Democratic Party’s parliamentary position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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