President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a commanding National Assembly majority that raises the bar for any impeachment motion, which requires two-thirds approval. Lee has repeatedly stated he will not pursue a second term even under proposed constitutional changes to a four-year, two-term system, a position reinforced by his office in July 2026 amid internal party debate. Approval ratings have fluctuated between roughly 42 and 50 percent in recent polls without triggering a political crisis, while suspended criminal cases and opposition petitions have produced no binding outcomes. These structural and political factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that removal is unlikely before year-end.