**Lee Jae-myung’s position as president remains secure through 2027 due to structural barriers in the National Assembly.** His Democratic Party holds a clear majority (161 of 300 seats), while the main opposition People Power Party controls roughly 110. Reaching the two-thirds threshold of 200 votes required for impeachment is therefore difficult without substantial cross-party support, which has not materialized. A June 2026 opposition petition demanding his removal over suspended criminal cases and alleged conflicts of interest gathered more than 100,000 signatures and advanced to committee review, yet analysts viewed it as unlikely to proceed given the seat distribution. Approval ratings have fallen below 50 percent for weeks and hit record lows near 40 percent in late August 2026 amid disputes over housing policy, prosecution reforms, local election logistics, and joint military exercises. These pressures have fueled opposition criticism but have not translated into viable legislative action. All of Lee’s pre-inauguration trials remain suspended, removing immediate legal triggers. With the ruling bloc retaining control and no scheduled events capable of shifting the balance before year-end 2026, traders assign only a modest probability to successful impeachment before 2027.