Current forecasts from multiple models show clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling with lows expected near 22–24 °C after a hot daytime peak above 35 °C. This aligns with the market’s elevated probabilities for 22–26 °C outcomes while the 48.5 % implied chance for 20 °C or below likely reflects residual uncertainty around model consensus and potential for stronger early-morning cooling under high pressure. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8 °C, yet the current warm anomaly driven by persistent southerly flow has kept minimum temperatures elevated, tempering odds for sub-21 °C readings. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 12–24 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
25°C 50%
26°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
49%
21°C
20%
22°C
25%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
50%
26°C
50%
27°C
8%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
2%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
25°C 50%
26°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
20°C or below
$25 Vol.
49%
21°C
$47 Vol.
20%
22°C
$13 Vol.
25%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
50%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$0 Vol.
7%
29°C
$20 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models show clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling with lows expected near 22–24 °C after a hot daytime peak above 35 °C. This aligns with the market’s elevated probabilities for 22–26 °C outcomes while the 48.5 % implied chance for 20 °C or below likely reflects residual uncertainty around model consensus and potential for stronger early-morning cooling under high pressure. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8 °C, yet the current warm anomaly driven by persistent southerly flow has kept minimum temperatures elevated, tempering odds for sub-21 °C readings. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 12–24 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$125End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models show clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling with lows expected near 22–24 °C after a hot daytime peak above 35 °C. This aligns with the market’s elevated probabilities for 22–26 °C outcomes while the 48.5 % implied chance for 20 °C or below likely reflects residual uncertainty around model consensus and potential for stronger early-morning cooling under high pressure. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8 °C, yet the current warm anomaly driven by persistent southerly flow has kept minimum temperatures elevated, tempering odds for sub-21 °C readings. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 12–24 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$125End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models show clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 7, supporting overnight radiative cooling with lows expected near 22–24 °C after a hot daytime peak above 35 °C. This aligns with the market’s elevated probabilities for 22–26 °C outcomes while the 48.5 % implied chance for 20 °C or below likely reflects residual uncertainty around model consensus and potential for stronger early-morning cooling under high pressure. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8 °C, yet the current warm anomaly driven by persistent southerly flow has kept minimum temperatures elevated, tempering odds for sub-21 °C readings. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 12–24 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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