Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light southwesterly winds on September 8, supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C under a stable high-pressure pattern typical of early September in Spain’s continental interior. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between 35°C and 36°C because ensemble guidance shows only minor differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs allowing brief additional warming before stronger westerly flow arrives. Recent days of elevated temperatures, including yellow alerts for maxima exceeding 36°C, have reinforced expectations of persistent heat, yet the absence of strong advection or significant cloud cover keeps the upper end of the distribution limited. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date will likely resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
35°C 45%
36°C 45%
37°C 5%
34°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
4%
35°C
45%
36°C
45%
37°C
5%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 45%
36°C 45%
37°C 5%
34°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
31°C or below
$121 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$270 Vol.
2%
34°C
$1,040 Vol.
4%
35°C
$856 Vol.
45%
36°C
$1,090 Vol.
45%
37°C
$551 Vol.
5%
38°C
$425 Vol.
1%
39°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$355 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light southwesterly winds on September 8, supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C under a stable high-pressure pattern typical of early September in Spain’s continental interior. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between 35°C and 36°C because ensemble guidance shows only minor differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs allowing brief additional warming before stronger westerly flow arrives. Recent days of elevated temperatures, including yellow alerts for maxima exceeding 36°C, have reinforced expectations of persistent heat, yet the absence of strong advection or significant cloud cover keeps the upper end of the distribution limited. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date will likely resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,449End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light southwesterly winds on September 8, supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C under a stable high-pressure pattern typical of early September in Spain’s continental interior. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between 35°C and 36°C because ensemble guidance shows only minor differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs allowing brief additional warming before stronger westerly flow arrives. Recent days of elevated temperatures, including yellow alerts for maxima exceeding 36°C, have reinforced expectations of persistent heat, yet the absence of strong advection or significant cloud cover keeps the upper end of the distribution limited. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date will likely resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,449End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light southwesterly winds on September 8, supporting afternoon highs near 33–35°C under a stable high-pressure pattern typical of early September in Spain’s continental interior. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between 35°C and 36°C because ensemble guidance shows only minor differences in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, with some runs allowing brief additional warming before stronger westerly flow arrives. Recent days of elevated temperatures, including yellow alerts for maxima exceeding 36°C, have reinforced expectations of persistent heat, yet the absence of strong advection or significant cloud cover keeps the upper end of the distribution limited. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date will likely resolve the narrow gap between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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