**Current forecast models from sources like the GFS and detailed European meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C for Madrid on September 8, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or northwesterly winds and high pressure.** This positions the 21°C-or-below outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 85%, reflecting trader consensus on stable anticyclonic conditions following the recent heatwave. Daytime highs remain elevated near 34°C before radiative cooling overnight, consistent with early-September climatology but moderated by the approaching frontal transition evident in mid-week guidance. Upcoming model runs and official AEMET updates will provide the key variables for any shifts, particularly if cloud cover or wind changes alter the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
21°C or below 63%
25°C 45%
26°C 45%
22°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
21°C or below
63%
22°C
20%
23°C
19%
24°C
1%
25°C
45%
26°C
45%
27°C
15%
28°C
15%
29°C
8%
30°C
4%
31°C or higher
3%
21°C or below 63%
25°C 45%
26°C 45%
22°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
63%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
45%
26°C
$0 Vol.
45%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$6 Vol.
4%
31°C or higher
$6 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like the GFS and detailed European meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C for Madrid on September 8, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or northwesterly winds and high pressure.** This positions the 21°C-or-below outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 85%, reflecting trader consensus on stable anticyclonic conditions following the recent heatwave. Daytime highs remain elevated near 34°C before radiative cooling overnight, consistent with early-September climatology but moderated by the approaching frontal transition evident in mid-week guidance. Upcoming model runs and official AEMET updates will provide the key variables for any shifts, particularly if cloud cover or wind changes alter the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$12End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like the GFS and detailed European meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C for Madrid on September 8, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or northwesterly winds and high pressure.** This positions the 21°C-or-below outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 85%, reflecting trader consensus on stable anticyclonic conditions following the recent heatwave. Daytime highs remain elevated near 34°C before radiative cooling overnight, consistent with early-September climatology but moderated by the approaching frontal transition evident in mid-week guidance. Upcoming model runs and official AEMET updates will provide the key variables for any shifts, particularly if cloud cover or wind changes alter the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models from sources like the GFS and detailed European meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C for Madrid on September 8, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northerly or northwesterly winds and high pressure.** This positions the 21°C-or-below outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 85%, reflecting trader consensus on stable anticyclonic conditions following the recent heatwave. Daytime highs remain elevated near 34°C before radiative cooling overnight, consistent with early-September climatology but moderated by the approaching frontal transition evident in mid-week guidance. Upcoming model runs and official AEMET updates will provide the key variables for any shifts, particularly if cloud cover or wind changes alter the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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