**Persistent heavy rain and cloud cover from linear precipitation bands over the Kanto region are the dominant factors capping Tokyo's September 7 maximum temperature.** Official JMA guidance and ensemble models indicate widespread showers and thunderstorms with high precipitation probabilities, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs in the mid-20s °C range. Recent model runs show consensus around 26–28°C, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity but rain-cooled air preventing stronger warming. The tight market clustering on 25–27°C reflects minor differences in forecast timing of heaviest rain and residual cloudiness, while lower-probability outcomes above 28°C or below 25°C would require unexpected breaks in precipitation or stronger steering winds. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
26°C 31%
27°C 28%
25°C 20%
28°C 13%
NEW
$45,106 Vol.
NEW
$45,106 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
9%
25°C
20%
26°C
31%
27°C
28%
28°C
13%
29°C
3%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 31%
27°C 28%
25°C 20%
28°C 13%
NEW
$45,106 Vol.
NEW
$45,106 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
$3,494 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15,545 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,674 Vol.
9%
25°C
$4,194 Vol.
20%
26°C
$3,140 Vol.
31%
27°C
$3,682 Vol.
28%
28°C
$6,232 Vol.
13%
29°C
$2,023 Vol.
3%
30°C
$1,443 Vol.
2%
31°C
$533 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,147 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent heavy rain and cloud cover from linear precipitation bands over the Kanto region are the dominant factors capping Tokyo's September 7 maximum temperature.** Official JMA guidance and ensemble models indicate widespread showers and thunderstorms with high precipitation probabilities, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs in the mid-20s °C range. Recent model runs show consensus around 26–28°C, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity but rain-cooled air preventing stronger warming. The tight market clustering on 25–27°C reflects minor differences in forecast timing of heaviest rain and residual cloudiness, while lower-probability outcomes above 28°C or below 25°C would require unexpected breaks in precipitation or stronger steering winds. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$45,106End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent heavy rain and cloud cover from linear precipitation bands over the Kanto region are the dominant factors capping Tokyo's September 7 maximum temperature.** Official JMA guidance and ensemble models indicate widespread showers and thunderstorms with high precipitation probabilities, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs in the mid-20s °C range. Recent model runs show consensus around 26–28°C, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity but rain-cooled air preventing stronger warming. The tight market clustering on 25–27°C reflects minor differences in forecast timing of heaviest rain and residual cloudiness, while lower-probability outcomes above 28°C or below 25°C would require unexpected breaks in precipitation or stronger steering winds. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,106End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent heavy rain and cloud cover from linear precipitation bands over the Kanto region are the dominant factors capping Tokyo's September 7 maximum temperature.** Official JMA guidance and ensemble models indicate widespread showers and thunderstorms with high precipitation probabilities, limiting solar heating and keeping daytime highs in the mid-20s °C range. Recent model runs show consensus around 26–28°C, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity but rain-cooled air preventing stronger warming. The tight market clustering on 25–27°C reflects minor differences in forecast timing of heaviest rain and residual cloudiness, while lower-probability outcomes above 28°C or below 25°C would require unexpected breaks in precipitation or stronger steering winds. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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