Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 8 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a seasonal front drawing warm, moist southerly flow that limits nighttime radiative cooling. High humidity and light winds further compress the diurnal range near seasonal norms of about 21.5°C lows, though model runs show slight upward bias from ongoing instability. Trader consensus reflected in the 41.5% implied probability for 25°C and 25.5% for 24°C aligns with this narrow range, while lower outcomes remain possible only if clearer skies develop unexpectedly ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
25°C 42%
24°C 26%
26°C 19%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
8%
23°C
13%
24°C
26%
25°C
42%
26°C
19%
27°C
6%
28°C
8%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 42%
24°C 26%
26°C 19%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
$263 Vol.
3%
21°C
$44 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C
$104 Vol.
13%
24°C
$65 Vol.
26%
25°C
$71 Vol.
42%
26°C
$372 Vol.
19%
27°C
$13 Vol.
6%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$13 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 8 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a seasonal front drawing warm, moist southerly flow that limits nighttime radiative cooling. High humidity and light winds further compress the diurnal range near seasonal norms of about 21.5°C lows, though model runs show slight upward bias from ongoing instability. Trader consensus reflected in the 41.5% implied probability for 25°C and 25.5% for 24°C aligns with this narrow range, while lower outcomes remain possible only if clearer skies develop unexpectedly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$964End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 8 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a seasonal front drawing warm, moist southerly flow that limits nighttime radiative cooling. High humidity and light winds further compress the diurnal range near seasonal norms of about 21.5°C lows, though model runs show slight upward bias from ongoing instability. Trader consensus reflected in the 41.5% implied probability for 25°C and 25.5% for 24°C aligns with this narrow range, while lower outcomes remain possible only if clearer skies develop unexpectedly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$964End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 8 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a seasonal front drawing warm, moist southerly flow that limits nighttime radiative cooling. High humidity and light winds further compress the diurnal range near seasonal norms of about 21.5°C lows, though model runs show slight upward bias from ongoing instability. Trader consensus reflected in the 41.5% implied probability for 25°C and 25.5% for 24°C aligns with this narrow range, while lower outcomes remain possible only if clearer skies develop unexpectedly ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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