Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature in Mexico City on September 8 most likely between 22–24°C, with afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers—typical of the late rainy season—limiting surface heating at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance for the preceding days shows maxima of 22–26°C under similar overcast conditions, while historical September averages near 23°C provide context. Trader consensus favors 23–24°C because ongoing El Niño strengthening has not yet altered short-term steering patterns or moisture profiles enough to produce clearer skies or stronger insolation. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any revised SMN outlooks, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or wind shifts change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 8?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 8?
24°C 38%
23°C 34%
25°C or higher 15%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
13%
23°C
34%
24°C
38%
25°C or higher
15%
24°C 38%
23°C 34%
25°C or higher 15%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
15°C or below
$437 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$531 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$385 Vol.
1%
18°C
$135 Vol.
1%
19°C
$120 Vol.
2%
20°C
$10 Vol.
2%
21°C
$10 Vol.
5%
22°C
$15 Vol.
13%
23°C
$89 Vol.
34%
24°C
$203 Vol.
38%
25°C or higher
$102 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature in Mexico City on September 8 most likely between 22–24°C, with afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers—typical of the late rainy season—limiting surface heating at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance for the preceding days shows maxima of 22–26°C under similar overcast conditions, while historical September averages near 23°C provide context. Trader consensus favors 23–24°C because ongoing El Niño strengthening has not yet altered short-term steering patterns or moisture profiles enough to produce clearer skies or stronger insolation. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any revised SMN outlooks, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or wind shifts change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,037End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature in Mexico City on September 8 most likely between 22–24°C, with afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers—typical of the late rainy season—limiting surface heating at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance for the preceding days shows maxima of 22–26°C under similar overcast conditions, while historical September averages near 23°C provide context. Trader consensus favors 23–24°C because ongoing El Niño strengthening has not yet altered short-term steering patterns or moisture profiles enough to produce clearer skies or stronger insolation. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any revised SMN outlooks, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or wind shifts change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,037End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature in Mexico City on September 8 most likely between 22–24°C, with afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers—typical of the late rainy season—limiting surface heating at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance for the preceding days shows maxima of 22–26°C under similar overcast conditions, while historical September averages near 23°C provide context. Trader consensus favors 23–24°C because ongoing El Niño strengthening has not yet altered short-term steering patterns or moisture profiles enough to produce clearer skies or stronger insolation. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any revised SMN outlooks, which could shift probabilities if precipitation timing or wind shifts change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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