Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 8 points to an overnight low in the upper 50s, supported by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, a strengthening marine layer, and light winds that limit radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 56°F provide context, yet current conditions show slightly elevated readings following several days of clear skies and highs in the 70s. Forecast uncertainty centers on the precise timing of fog or stratus return, which can trap heat or enhance cooling depending on arrival. Traders are weighting the 58-59°F range most heavily because ensemble runs cluster there, with 56-57°F close behind if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. New model updates and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 8?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 8?
49°F or below 57%
68°F or higher 57%
62-63°F 49%
64-65°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
49°F or below
57%
50-51°F
19%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
14%
56-57°F
30%
58-59°F
34%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
49%
66-67°F
49%
68°F or higher
57%
49°F or below 57%
68°F or higher 57%
62-63°F 49%
64-65°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
57%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
19%
52-53°F
$5 Vol.
18%
54-55°F
$6 Vol.
14%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
30%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
34%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
26%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
49%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
49%
66-67°F
$22 Vol.
49%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 8 points to an overnight low in the upper 50s, supported by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, a strengthening marine layer, and light winds that limit radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 56°F provide context, yet current conditions show slightly elevated readings following several days of clear skies and highs in the 70s. Forecast uncertainty centers on the precise timing of fog or stratus return, which can trap heat or enhance cooling depending on arrival. Traders are weighting the 58-59°F range most heavily because ensemble runs cluster there, with 56-57°F close behind if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. New model updates and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 8 points to an overnight low in the upper 50s, supported by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, a strengthening marine layer, and light winds that limit radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 56°F provide context, yet current conditions show slightly elevated readings following several days of clear skies and highs in the 70s. Forecast uncertainty centers on the precise timing of fog or stratus return, which can trap heat or enhance cooling depending on arrival. Traders are weighting the 58-59°F range most heavily because ensemble runs cluster there, with 56-57°F close behind if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. New model updates and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 8 points to an overnight low in the upper 50s, supported by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, a strengthening marine layer, and light winds that limit radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 56°F provide context, yet current conditions show slightly elevated readings following several days of clear skies and highs in the 70s. Forecast uncertainty centers on the precise timing of fog or stratus return, which can trap heat or enhance cooling depending on arrival. Traders are weighting the 58-59°F range most heavily because ensemble runs cluster there, with 56-57°F close behind if the marine layer deepens earlier than expected. New model updates and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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