**National Weather Service forecasts and recent observations position the 56–57°F range as the leading market outcome for San Francisco’s September 6 low, reflecting typical marine-layer moderation under westerly onshore flow.** Models from NOAA and NWS indicate overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 56.1°F, with current conditions showing daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s transitioning to mid-50s overnight amid clear to partly cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds. Recent data from SFO (yesterday’s 58°F minimum) and ensemble guidance support probabilities clustering around 56–59°F, while higher ranges like 60–61°F reflect residual uncertainty from variable cloud cover or slight warming. Traders weigh these against historical September lows averaging in the mid-50s, with resolution hinging on official minimum readings through the night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 6?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 6?
50-51°F 35.0%
52-53°F 20%
54-55°F 11%
49°F or below 1.0%
$605 Vol.
$605 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
49°F or below
1%
50-51°F
35%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
11%
56-57°F
57%
58-59°F
46%
60-61°F
45%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
50-51°F 35.0%
52-53°F 20%
54-55°F 11%
49°F or below 1.0%
$605 Vol.
$605 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
49°F or below
$67 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$106 Vol.
35%
52-53°F
$53 Vol.
20%
54-55°F
$10 Vol.
11%
56-57°F
$28 Vol.
57%
58-59°F
$98 Vol.
46%
60-61°F
$14 Vol.
45%
62-63°F
$80 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$40 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$40 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$69 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**National Weather Service forecasts and recent observations position the 56–57°F range as the leading market outcome for San Francisco’s September 6 low, reflecting typical marine-layer moderation under westerly onshore flow.** Models from NOAA and NWS indicate overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 56.1°F, with current conditions showing daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s transitioning to mid-50s overnight amid clear to partly cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds. Recent data from SFO (yesterday’s 58°F minimum) and ensemble guidance support probabilities clustering around 56–59°F, while higher ranges like 60–61°F reflect residual uncertainty from variable cloud cover or slight warming. Traders weigh these against historical September lows averaging in the mid-50s, with resolution hinging on official minimum readings through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$605End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**National Weather Service forecasts and recent observations position the 56–57°F range as the leading market outcome for San Francisco’s September 6 low, reflecting typical marine-layer moderation under westerly onshore flow.** Models from NOAA and NWS indicate overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 56.1°F, with current conditions showing daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s transitioning to mid-50s overnight amid clear to partly cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds. Recent data from SFO (yesterday’s 58°F minimum) and ensemble guidance support probabilities clustering around 56–59°F, while higher ranges like 60–61°F reflect residual uncertainty from variable cloud cover or slight warming. Traders weigh these against historical September lows averaging in the mid-50s, with resolution hinging on official minimum readings through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$605End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**National Weather Service forecasts and recent observations position the 56–57°F range as the leading market outcome for San Francisco’s September 6 low, reflecting typical marine-layer moderation under westerly onshore flow.** Models from NOAA and NWS indicate overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 56.1°F, with current conditions showing daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s transitioning to mid-50s overnight amid clear to partly cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds. Recent data from SFO (yesterday’s 58°F minimum) and ensemble guidance support probabilities clustering around 56–59°F, while higher ranges like 60–61°F reflect residual uncertainty from variable cloud cover or slight warming. Traders weigh these against historical September lows averaging in the mid-50s, with resolution hinging on official minimum readings through the night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions