Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a minimum temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8 likely between 6–9°C under northerly flow and mostly clear skies that favor overnight radiational cooling. This positions the 7°C, 8°C, 4–6°C, and related bins near 24% each as leading outcomes, consistent with current observational trends showing seasonal spring warming from recent cooler readings near 4–5°C. The elevated 49% implied probability on 3°C or below reflects trader weighting of tail-risk scenarios from model spread or historical September extremes, though official guidance shows limited support for such cold. Upcoming updated runs from regional meteorological agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
3°C or below 93%
13°C or higher 59%
4°C 48%
6°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
3°C or below
93%
4°C
48%
5°C
27%
6°C
48%
7°C
26%
8°C
26%
9°C
18%
10°C
18%
11°C
16%
12°C
16%
13°C or higher
59%
3°C or below 93%
13°C or higher 59%
4°C 48%
6°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
93%
4°C
$0 Vol.
48%
5°C
$0 Vol.
27%
6°C
$0 Vol.
48%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
18%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
16%
12°C
$0 Vol.
16%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a minimum temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8 likely between 6–9°C under northerly flow and mostly clear skies that favor overnight radiational cooling. This positions the 7°C, 8°C, 4–6°C, and related bins near 24% each as leading outcomes, consistent with current observational trends showing seasonal spring warming from recent cooler readings near 4–5°C. The elevated 49% implied probability on 3°C or below reflects trader weighting of tail-risk scenarios from model spread or historical September extremes, though official guidance shows limited support for such cold. Upcoming updated runs from regional meteorological agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a minimum temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8 likely between 6–9°C under northerly flow and mostly clear skies that favor overnight radiational cooling. This positions the 7°C, 8°C, 4–6°C, and related bins near 24% each as leading outcomes, consistent with current observational trends showing seasonal spring warming from recent cooler readings near 4–5°C. The elevated 49% implied probability on 3°C or below reflects trader weighting of tail-risk scenarios from model spread or historical September extremes, though official guidance shows limited support for such cold. Upcoming updated runs from regional meteorological agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a minimum temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8 likely between 6–9°C under northerly flow and mostly clear skies that favor overnight radiational cooling. This positions the 7°C, 8°C, 4–6°C, and related bins near 24% each as leading outcomes, consistent with current observational trends showing seasonal spring warming from recent cooler readings near 4–5°C. The elevated 49% implied probability on 3°C or below reflects trader weighting of tail-risk scenarios from model spread or historical September extremes, though official guidance shows limited support for such cold. Upcoming updated runs from regional meteorological agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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