Forecast consensus from National Weather Service models points to a mid-90s high in Austin on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, south winds near 5 mph, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak readings through evaporative cooling and cloud cover. This setup follows an unseasonably hot Labor Day weekend that produced 102°F readings, well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 93.4°F, yet today's increased moisture and instability introduce uncertainty around whether convection suppresses the maximum or allows brief clearing to push toward 96–97°F. Heat indices near 106°F reflect elevated dew points near 74°F, while model spreads and historical variability on similar patterns support the market's tight clustering between 94–97°F bins as the most probable outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 6?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 6?
94-95°F 38%
96-97°F 34%
92-93°F 20%
98-99°F 6%
$36,749 Vol.
$36,749 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
38%
96-97°F
34%
98-99°F
6%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 38%
96-97°F 34%
92-93°F 20%
98-99°F 6%
$36,749 Vol.
$36,749 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
85°F or below
$4,506 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$6,534 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$2,103 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$4,254 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$3,822 Vol.
20%
94-95°F
$4,487 Vol.
38%
96-97°F
$5,149 Vol.
34%
98-99°F
$2,327 Vol.
6%
100-101°F
$2,093 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$917 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$557 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service models points to a mid-90s high in Austin on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, south winds near 5 mph, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak readings through evaporative cooling and cloud cover. This setup follows an unseasonably hot Labor Day weekend that produced 102°F readings, well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 93.4°F, yet today's increased moisture and instability introduce uncertainty around whether convection suppresses the maximum or allows brief clearing to push toward 96–97°F. Heat indices near 106°F reflect elevated dew points near 74°F, while model spreads and historical variability on similar patterns support the market's tight clustering between 94–97°F bins as the most probable outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$36,749End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service models points to a mid-90s high in Austin on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, south winds near 5 mph, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak readings through evaporative cooling and cloud cover. This setup follows an unseasonably hot Labor Day weekend that produced 102°F readings, well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 93.4°F, yet today's increased moisture and instability introduce uncertainty around whether convection suppresses the maximum or allows brief clearing to push toward 96–97°F. Heat indices near 106°F reflect elevated dew points near 74°F, while model spreads and historical variability on similar patterns support the market's tight clustering between 94–97°F bins as the most probable outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,749End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from National Weather Service models points to a mid-90s high in Austin on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, south winds near 5 mph, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak readings through evaporative cooling and cloud cover. This setup follows an unseasonably hot Labor Day weekend that produced 102°F readings, well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 93.4°F, yet today's increased moisture and instability introduce uncertainty around whether convection suppresses the maximum or allows brief clearing to push toward 96–97°F. Heat indices near 106°F reflect elevated dew points near 74°F, while model spreads and historical variability on similar patterns support the market's tight clustering between 94–97°F bins as the most probable outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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