**Official forecasts position upper-90s highs as the most likely outcome for Austin on September 7.** Multiple models, including NWS guidance and private ensembles, project daily maxima of 96–99 °F under a persistent upper-level ridge that has maintained unseasonably hot conditions across central Texas. Recent Labor Day weekend readings reached 102 °F, well above the early-September climatological average near 94 °F, with southerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting strong daytime heating and heat indices above 105 °F. Low precipitation chances (under 20 %) reduce the likelihood of cooling showers, while minor model spread in timing of any weak disturbance creates the observed market distribution favoring 98–99 °F (44.5 %) over adjacent bins. Updated model runs and afternoon observations on September 6 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 7?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 7?
98-99°F 45%
96-97°F 23%
100-101°F 20%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
$10,932 Vol.
NEW
$10,932 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
87°F or below
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
23%
98-99°F
45%
100-101°F
20%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 45%
96-97°F 23%
100-101°F 20%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
$10,932 Vol.
NEW
$10,932 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
87°F or below
$430 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$412 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$350 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$435 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$1,039 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$3,774 Vol.
23%
98-99°F
$1,423 Vol.
45%
100-101°F
$1,623 Vol.
20%
102-103°F
$727 Vol.
4%
104-105°F
$207 Vol.
<1%
106°F or higher
$511 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts position upper-90s highs as the most likely outcome for Austin on September 7.** Multiple models, including NWS guidance and private ensembles, project daily maxima of 96–99 °F under a persistent upper-level ridge that has maintained unseasonably hot conditions across central Texas. Recent Labor Day weekend readings reached 102 °F, well above the early-September climatological average near 94 °F, with southerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting strong daytime heating and heat indices above 105 °F. Low precipitation chances (under 20 %) reduce the likelihood of cooling showers, while minor model spread in timing of any weak disturbance creates the observed market distribution favoring 98–99 °F (44.5 %) over adjacent bins. Updated model runs and afternoon observations on September 6 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,932End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts position upper-90s highs as the most likely outcome for Austin on September 7.** Multiple models, including NWS guidance and private ensembles, project daily maxima of 96–99 °F under a persistent upper-level ridge that has maintained unseasonably hot conditions across central Texas. Recent Labor Day weekend readings reached 102 °F, well above the early-September climatological average near 94 °F, with southerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting strong daytime heating and heat indices above 105 °F. Low precipitation chances (under 20 %) reduce the likelihood of cooling showers, while minor model spread in timing of any weak disturbance creates the observed market distribution favoring 98–99 °F (44.5 %) over adjacent bins. Updated model runs and afternoon observations on September 6 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,932End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts position upper-90s highs as the most likely outcome for Austin on September 7.** Multiple models, including NWS guidance and private ensembles, project daily maxima of 96–99 °F under a persistent upper-level ridge that has maintained unseasonably hot conditions across central Texas. Recent Labor Day weekend readings reached 102 °F, well above the early-September climatological average near 94 °F, with southerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting strong daytime heating and heat indices above 105 °F. Low precipitation chances (under 20 %) reduce the likelihood of cooling showers, while minor model spread in timing of any weak disturbance creates the observed market distribution favoring 98–99 °F (44.5 %) over adjacent bins. Updated model runs and afternoon observations on September 6 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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