Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a typical early-September marine layer over the San Francisco Bay Area, with light onshore flow and clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 7. This setup supports a minimum temperature near the long-term average of 56.1 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin at 53 % implied probability. Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a low of 56–60 °F, reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and wind patterns rather than any anomalous warming or cooling event. Traders appear to weigh historical September minima and current model consensus heavily, with lower-probability bins for sub-54 °F or 58 °F+ outcomes reflecting the narrow expected range. Updated NHC and local model runs tonight will further refine overnight radiative cooling expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
56-57°F 53%
60-61°F 28%
54-55°F 25%
52-53°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
12%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
53%
58-59°F
22%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
56-57°F 53%
60-61°F 28%
54-55°F 25%
52-53°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
$18 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
5%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
12%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
25%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
25%
56-57°F
$68 Vol.
53%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
22%
60-61°F
$20 Vol.
28%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
66°F or higher
$165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a typical early-September marine layer over the San Francisco Bay Area, with light onshore flow and clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 7. This setup supports a minimum temperature near the long-term average of 56.1 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin at 53 % implied probability. Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a low of 56–60 °F, reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and wind patterns rather than any anomalous warming or cooling event. Traders appear to weigh historical September minima and current model consensus heavily, with lower-probability bins for sub-54 °F or 58 °F+ outcomes reflecting the narrow expected range. Updated NHC and local model runs tonight will further refine overnight radiative cooling expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$376End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a typical early-September marine layer over the San Francisco Bay Area, with light onshore flow and clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 7. This setup supports a minimum temperature near the long-term average of 56.1 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin at 53 % implied probability. Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a low of 56–60 °F, reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and wind patterns rather than any anomalous warming or cooling event. Traders appear to weigh historical September minima and current model consensus heavily, with lower-probability bins for sub-54 °F or 58 °F+ outcomes reflecting the narrow expected range. Updated NHC and local model runs tonight will further refine overnight radiative cooling expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$376End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a typical early-September marine layer over the San Francisco Bay Area, with light onshore flow and clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into September 7. This setup supports a minimum temperature near the long-term average of 56.1 °F, aligning with the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin at 53 % implied probability. Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a low of 56–60 °F, reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and wind patterns rather than any anomalous warming or cooling event. Traders appear to weigh historical September minima and current model consensus heavily, with lower-probability bins for sub-54 °F or 58 °F+ outcomes reflecting the narrow expected range. Updated NHC and local model runs tonight will further refine overnight radiative cooling expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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