**Persistent heavy rain and widespread cloud cover from an active weather system are anchoring trader expectations for a Tokyo minimum near 23°C on September 7.** Multiple forecast models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate overnight lows stabilizing around 23–24°C (73–75°F) amid saturated air, high humidity near 95%, and minimal radiational cooling under overcast skies. Daytime thunderstorms and southerly flow further limit diurnal temperature swings, keeping the daily minimum in a narrow band consistent with late-summer climatology. With resolution imminent and no significant model shifts or clearing trends in the latest runs, the 87% market-implied probability on 23°C reflects strong consensus around these stable, rain-moderated conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
23°C 85%
22°C 22%
20°C 3%
21°C 3%
NEW
$10,660 Vol.
NEW
$10,660 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C
22%
23°C
74%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 85%
22°C 22%
20°C 3%
21°C 3%
NEW
$10,660 Vol.
NEW
$10,660 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
$716 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$839 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1,399 Vol.
3%
22°C
$1,302 Vol.
22%
23°C
$2,274 Vol.
74%
24°C
$3,001 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$706 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$149 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent heavy rain and widespread cloud cover from an active weather system are anchoring trader expectations for a Tokyo minimum near 23°C on September 7.** Multiple forecast models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate overnight lows stabilizing around 23–24°C (73–75°F) amid saturated air, high humidity near 95%, and minimal radiational cooling under overcast skies. Daytime thunderstorms and southerly flow further limit diurnal temperature swings, keeping the daily minimum in a narrow band consistent with late-summer climatology. With resolution imminent and no significant model shifts or clearing trends in the latest runs, the 87% market-implied probability on 23°C reflects strong consensus around these stable, rain-moderated conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$10,660End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent heavy rain and widespread cloud cover from an active weather system are anchoring trader expectations for a Tokyo minimum near 23°C on September 7.** Multiple forecast models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate overnight lows stabilizing around 23–24°C (73–75°F) amid saturated air, high humidity near 95%, and minimal radiational cooling under overcast skies. Daytime thunderstorms and southerly flow further limit diurnal temperature swings, keeping the daily minimum in a narrow band consistent with late-summer climatology. With resolution imminent and no significant model shifts or clearing trends in the latest runs, the 87% market-implied probability on 23°C reflects strong consensus around these stable, rain-moderated conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,660End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent heavy rain and widespread cloud cover from an active weather system are anchoring trader expectations for a Tokyo minimum near 23°C on September 7.** Multiple forecast models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate overnight lows stabilizing around 23–24°C (73–75°F) amid saturated air, high humidity near 95%, and minimal radiational cooling under overcast skies. Daytime thunderstorms and southerly flow further limit diurnal temperature swings, keeping the daily minimum in a narrow band consistent with late-summer climatology. With resolution imminent and no significant model shifts or clearing trends in the latest runs, the 87% market-implied probability on 23°C reflects strong consensus around these stable, rain-moderated conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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