**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 22°C low on September 6 reflects consistent model guidance and real-time observations showing overnight minima stabilizing near this threshold.** Clear skies, light winds, and dry air under high pressure have limited radiative cooling, producing minimum temperatures around 21–23°C across Madrid stations, with hourly data and forecasts converging on 22°C as the day’s official low. This aligns with early-September climatology, where average lows hover near 17°C but warm anomalies from recent days have elevated readings. The market-implied odds capture traders’ assessment of AEMET and international model consensus, where small deviations in timing or station reporting remain possible but unlikely to shift the outcome outside the narrow 22°C band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
22°C 99.6%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$2,235 Vol.
$2,235 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.6%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$2,235 Vol.
$2,235 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$162 Vol.
1%
22°C
$816 Vol.
100%
23°C
$864 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$74 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 22°C low on September 6 reflects consistent model guidance and real-time observations showing overnight minima stabilizing near this threshold.** Clear skies, light winds, and dry air under high pressure have limited radiative cooling, producing minimum temperatures around 21–23°C across Madrid stations, with hourly data and forecasts converging on 22°C as the day’s official low. This aligns with early-September climatology, where average lows hover near 17°C but warm anomalies from recent days have elevated readings. The market-implied odds capture traders’ assessment of AEMET and international model consensus, where small deviations in timing or station reporting remain possible but unlikely to shift the outcome outside the narrow 22°C band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,235End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 22°C low on September 6 reflects consistent model guidance and real-time observations showing overnight minima stabilizing near this threshold.** Clear skies, light winds, and dry air under high pressure have limited radiative cooling, producing minimum temperatures around 21–23°C across Madrid stations, with hourly data and forecasts converging on 22°C as the day’s official low. This aligns with early-September climatology, where average lows hover near 17°C but warm anomalies from recent days have elevated readings. The market-implied odds capture traders’ assessment of AEMET and international model consensus, where small deviations in timing or station reporting remain possible but unlikely to shift the outcome outside the narrow 22°C band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,235End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a 22°C low on September 6 reflects consistent model guidance and real-time observations showing overnight minima stabilizing near this threshold.** Clear skies, light winds, and dry air under high pressure have limited radiative cooling, producing minimum temperatures around 21–23°C across Madrid stations, with hourly data and forecasts converging on 22°C as the day’s official low. This aligns with early-September climatology, where average lows hover near 17°C but warm anomalies from recent days have elevated readings. The market-implied odds capture traders’ assessment of AEMET and international model consensus, where small deviations in timing or station reporting remain possible but unlikely to shift the outcome outside the narrow 22°C band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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