Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong daytime heating on September 7 under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving afternoon maxima primarily in the 35–37°C range. This setup favors efficient solar insolation and minimal cloud cover or moisture, with historical analogs showing similar late-summer patterns can reach 38°C when boundary-layer mixing aligns favorably. Model consensus clusters near 36–37°C, but small differences in wind speed, surface albedo, or urban heat-island effects create the narrow 37°C versus 38°C split reflected in market-implied odds. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the precise peak before official observations begin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
37°C 53%
38°C 44%
36°C 4%
39°C <1%
NEW
$13,324 Vol.
NEW
$13,324 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
4%
37°C
53%
38°C
44%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
37°C 53%
38°C 44%
36°C 4%
39°C <1%
NEW
$13,324 Vol.
NEW
$13,324 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
34°C or below
$98 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,802 Vol.
4%
37°C
$3,993 Vol.
53%
38°C
$4,844 Vol.
44%
39°C
$697 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$679 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$161 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$307 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$307 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong daytime heating on September 7 under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving afternoon maxima primarily in the 35–37°C range. This setup favors efficient solar insolation and minimal cloud cover or moisture, with historical analogs showing similar late-summer patterns can reach 38°C when boundary-layer mixing aligns favorably. Model consensus clusters near 36–37°C, but small differences in wind speed, surface albedo, or urban heat-island effects create the narrow 37°C versus 38°C split reflected in market-implied odds. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the precise peak before official observations begin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$13,324End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong daytime heating on September 7 under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving afternoon maxima primarily in the 35–37°C range. This setup favors efficient solar insolation and minimal cloud cover or moisture, with historical analogs showing similar late-summer patterns can reach 38°C when boundary-layer mixing aligns favorably. Model consensus clusters near 36–37°C, but small differences in wind speed, surface albedo, or urban heat-island effects create the narrow 37°C versus 38°C split reflected in market-implied odds. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the precise peak before official observations begin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,324End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong daytime heating on September 7 under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving afternoon maxima primarily in the 35–37°C range. This setup favors efficient solar insolation and minimal cloud cover or moisture, with historical analogs showing similar late-summer patterns can reach 38°C when boundary-layer mixing aligns favorably. Model consensus clusters near 36–37°C, but small differences in wind speed, surface albedo, or urban heat-island effects create the narrow 37°C versus 38°C split reflected in market-implied odds. Updated runs expected overnight will refine the precise peak before official observations begin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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