**Democratic nominee William Lawrence holds a modest edge in the MI-07 general election market** due to the district’s underlying partisan lean and recent polling showing him competitive against Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary after moderates Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam split the vote, allowing the progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder to prevail with roughly 44 percent. A mid-August Global Strategy Group poll placed Lawrence at 49 percent to Barrett’s 47 percent in the general election matchup. The Lansing-area seat, which Barrett flipped by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up or Lean Democratic ratings from most forecasters. Outside spending, including Republican ad buys targeting Lawrence, and the broader 2026 midterm environment continue to shape trader assessments of the race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-07 House Election Winner
MI-07 House Election Winner
$17,528 Vol.
$17,528 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
62%
Republican Party
38%
$17,528 Vol.
$17,528 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,946 Vol.
62%
Republican Party
$5,582 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee William Lawrence holds a modest edge in the MI-07 general election market** due to the district’s underlying partisan lean and recent polling showing him competitive against Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary after moderates Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam split the vote, allowing the progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder to prevail with roughly 44 percent. A mid-August Global Strategy Group poll placed Lawrence at 49 percent to Barrett’s 47 percent in the general election matchup. The Lansing-area seat, which Barrett flipped by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up or Lean Democratic ratings from most forecasters. Outside spending, including Republican ad buys targeting Lawrence, and the broader 2026 midterm environment continue to shape trader assessments of the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$17,528End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee William Lawrence holds a modest edge in the MI-07 general election market** due to the district’s underlying partisan lean and recent polling showing him competitive against Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary after moderates Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam split the vote, allowing the progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder to prevail with roughly 44 percent. A mid-August Global Strategy Group poll placed Lawrence at 49 percent to Barrett’s 47 percent in the general election matchup. The Lansing-area seat, which Barrett flipped by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up or Lean Democratic ratings from most forecasters. Outside spending, including Republican ad buys targeting Lawrence, and the broader 2026 midterm environment continue to shape trader assessments of the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,528End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee William Lawrence holds a modest edge in the MI-07 general election market** due to the district’s underlying partisan lean and recent polling showing him competitive against Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Lawrence secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary after moderates Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam split the vote, allowing the progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder to prevail with roughly 44 percent. A mid-August Global Strategy Group poll placed Lawrence at 49 percent to Barrett’s 47 percent in the general election matchup. The Lansing-area seat, which Barrett flipped by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up or Lean Democratic ratings from most forecasters. Outside spending, including Republican ad buys targeting Lawrence, and the broader 2026 midterm environment continue to shape trader assessments of the race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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