Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, first elected in 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 4th congressional district. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean—Donald Trump carried it by roughly 30 points in 2024. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated her primary opponent by a wide margin. The combination of long-term incumbency, favorable voter registration trends in Monmouth and Ocean counties, and limited Democratic infrastructure explains the market’s 96% consensus for the Republican nominee. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this district make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
$13,209 Vol.
$13,209 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
5%
$13,209 Vol.
$13,209 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,162 Vol.
96%
Democratic Party
$7,047 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, first elected in 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 4th congressional district. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean—Donald Trump carried it by roughly 30 points in 2024. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated her primary opponent by a wide margin. The combination of long-term incumbency, favorable voter registration trends in Monmouth and Ocean counties, and limited Democratic infrastructure explains the market’s 96% consensus for the Republican nominee. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this district make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$13,209End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, first elected in 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 4th congressional district. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean—Donald Trump carried it by roughly 30 points in 2024. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated her primary opponent by a wide margin. The combination of long-term incumbency, favorable voter registration trends in Monmouth and Ocean counties, and limited Democratic infrastructure explains the market’s 96% consensus for the Republican nominee. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this district make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,209End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, first elected in 1981, faces Democrat Rachel Peace in the November 3, 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 4th congressional district. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s strong partisan lean—Donald Trump carried it by roughly 30 points in 2024. Smith ran unopposed in the June Republican primary while Peace defeated her primary opponent by a wide margin. The combination of long-term incumbency, favorable voter registration trends in Monmouth and Ocean counties, and limited Democratic infrastructure explains the market’s 96% consensus for the Republican nominee. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this district make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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