Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate race against Republican Raymond McKay, with forecasts rating the contest Solid Democratic and polling margins ranging from 17 to 32 points. This lack of competitiveness in a midterm year typically dampens voter enthusiasm and produces turnout closer to historical midterm levels around 43-50% of eligible voters. Early voting began August 20 ahead of the September 9 primary and November 3 general, yet limited campaign intensity and safe-seat dynamics keep participation uncertain. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 300K-350K and 450K+ ballots, reflecting ambiguity over whether standard midterm patterns or any late mobilization will prevail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated300K-350K 33%
400K-450K 31%
450K+ 28%
350K-400K 27%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<250K
26%
250K-300K
18%
300K-350K
33%
350K-400K
27%
400K-450K
31%
450K+
28%
300K-350K 33%
400K-450K 31%
450K+ 28%
350K-400K 27%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<250K
$0 Vol.
26%
250K-300K
$0 Vol.
18%
300K-350K
$0 Vol.
33%
350K-400K
$0 Vol.
27%
400K-450K
$0 Vol.
31%
450K+
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate race against Republican Raymond McKay, with forecasts rating the contest Solid Democratic and polling margins ranging from 17 to 32 points. This lack of competitiveness in a midterm year typically dampens voter enthusiasm and produces turnout closer to historical midterm levels around 43-50% of eligible voters. Early voting began August 20 ahead of the September 9 primary and November 3 general, yet limited campaign intensity and safe-seat dynamics keep participation uncertain. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 300K-350K and 450K+ ballots, reflecting ambiguity over whether standard midterm patterns or any late mobilization will prevail.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate race against Republican Raymond McKay, with forecasts rating the contest Solid Democratic and polling margins ranging from 17 to 32 points. This lack of competitiveness in a midterm year typically dampens voter enthusiasm and produces turnout closer to historical midterm levels around 43-50% of eligible voters. Early voting began August 20 ahead of the September 9 primary and November 3 general, yet limited campaign intensity and safe-seat dynamics keep participation uncertain. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 300K-350K and 450K+ ballots, reflecting ambiguity over whether standard midterm patterns or any late mobilization will prevail.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate race against Republican Raymond McKay, with forecasts rating the contest Solid Democratic and polling margins ranging from 17 to 32 points. This lack of competitiveness in a midterm year typically dampens voter enthusiasm and produces turnout closer to historical midterm levels around 43-50% of eligible voters. Early voting began August 20 ahead of the September 9 primary and November 3 general, yet limited campaign intensity and safe-seat dynamics keep participation uncertain. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 300K-350K and 450K+ ballots, reflecting ambiguity over whether standard midterm patterns or any late mobilization will prevail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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