Talarico's 63% implied probability in the Tarrant County market reflects trader views of his stronger suburban appeal in a competitive statewide contest against Paxton. Tarrant, a key North Texas swing area with growing independent and Hispanic voters, showed primary preferences for establishment figures before shifting dynamics in the general. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent Cornyn, combined with ongoing scrutiny of his record, has weighed on his support in suburban precincts, while Talarico's primary win, substantial fundraising edge, and polling leads among independents have boosted expectations for county-level gains. Multiple minor candidates and "other" options priced near 50% underscore uncertainty over vote fragmentation. Recent statewide polls showing near-ties have reinforced focus on turnout and demographic shifts that could decide the county outcome on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
63%
Ken Paxton (R)
19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
$3,283 Vol.
63%
Ken Paxton (R)
$143 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.Talarico's 63% implied probability in the Tarrant County market reflects trader views of his stronger suburban appeal in a competitive statewide contest against Paxton. Tarrant, a key North Texas swing area with growing independent and Hispanic voters, showed primary preferences for establishment figures before shifting dynamics in the general. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent Cornyn, combined with ongoing scrutiny of his record, has weighed on his support in suburban precincts, while Talarico's primary win, substantial fundraising edge, and polling leads among independents have boosted expectations for county-level gains. Multiple minor candidates and "other" options priced near 50% underscore uncertainty over vote fragmentation. Recent statewide polls showing near-ties have reinforced focus on turnout and demographic shifts that could decide the county outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$3,426End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.Talarico's 63% implied probability in the Tarrant County market reflects trader views of his stronger suburban appeal in a competitive statewide contest against Paxton. Tarrant, a key North Texas swing area with growing independent and Hispanic voters, showed primary preferences for establishment figures before shifting dynamics in the general. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent Cornyn, combined with ongoing scrutiny of his record, has weighed on his support in suburban precincts, while Talarico's primary win, substantial fundraising edge, and polling leads among independents have boosted expectations for county-level gains. Multiple minor candidates and "other" options priced near 50% underscore uncertainty over vote fragmentation. Recent statewide polls showing near-ties have reinforced focus on turnout and demographic shifts that could decide the county outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Volume
$3,426End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Talarico's 63% implied probability in the Tarrant County market reflects trader views of his stronger suburban appeal in a competitive statewide contest against Paxton. Tarrant, a key North Texas swing area with growing independent and Hispanic voters, showed primary preferences for establishment figures before shifting dynamics in the general. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent Cornyn, combined with ongoing scrutiny of his record, has weighed on his support in suburban precincts, while Talarico's primary win, substantial fundraising edge, and polling leads among independents have boosted expectations for county-level gains. Multiple minor candidates and "other" options priced near 50% underscore uncertainty over vote fragmentation. Recent statewide polls showing near-ties have reinforced focus on turnout and demographic shifts that could decide the county outcome on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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