The TX-37 race features Democratic incumbent Greg Casar against Republican Lauren Peña in a district redrawn during 2025 mid-decade redistricting that retained a strong Democratic lean based on recent presidential and Senate results. Casar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the March primary while Peña advanced through the Republican runoff in May, yet both campaigns have seen limited visibility and spending since then. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Austin core and partisan voter index. Trader consensus on exact victory margins remains dispersed across buckets because few public polls exist and no major late-cycle events have shifted fundamentals. Developments that could widen separation include turnout differentials in Democratic strongholds, national midterm messaging on economic or immigration issues, or any surprise endorsements and advertising surges in the final weeks before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 45-50% 46%
Democrat 0-35% 34%
Democrat 75%+ 29%
Democrat 70-75% 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 75%+
29%
Democrat 70-75%
28%
Democrat 65-70%
26%
Democrat 60-65%
26%
Democrat 55-60%
25%
Democrat 50-55%
25%
Democrat 45-50%
46%
Democrat 35-45%
24%
Democrat 0-35%
34%
Republican Wins
1%
Democrat 45-50% 46%
Democrat 0-35% 34%
Democrat 75%+ 29%
Democrat 70-75% 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 75%+
$23 Vol.
29%
Democrat 70-75%
$23 Vol.
28%
Democrat 65-70%
$31 Vol.
26%
Democrat 60-65%
$23 Vol.
26%
Democrat 55-60%
$31 Vol.
25%
Democrat 50-55%
$23 Vol.
25%
Democrat 45-50%
$23 Vol.
46%
Democrat 35-45%
$23 Vol.
24%
Democrat 0-35%
$23 Vol.
34%
Republican Wins
$139 Vol.
1%
The 2026 TX-37 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-37 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The TX-37 race features Democratic incumbent Greg Casar against Republican Lauren Peña in a district redrawn during 2025 mid-decade redistricting that retained a strong Democratic lean based on recent presidential and Senate results. Casar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the March primary while Peña advanced through the Republican runoff in May, yet both campaigns have seen limited visibility and spending since then. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Austin core and partisan voter index. Trader consensus on exact victory margins remains dispersed across buckets because few public polls exist and no major late-cycle events have shifted fundamentals. Developments that could widen separation include turnout differentials in Democratic strongholds, national midterm messaging on economic or immigration issues, or any surprise endorsements and advertising surges in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 TX-37 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-37 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-37 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$362End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 TX-37 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-37 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The TX-37 race features Democratic incumbent Greg Casar against Republican Lauren Peña in a district redrawn during 2025 mid-decade redistricting that retained a strong Democratic lean based on recent presidential and Senate results. Casar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the March primary while Peña advanced through the Republican runoff in May, yet both campaigns have seen limited visibility and spending since then. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Austin core and partisan voter index. Trader consensus on exact victory margins remains dispersed across buckets because few public polls exist and no major late-cycle events have shifted fundamentals. Developments that could widen separation include turnout differentials in Democratic strongholds, national midterm messaging on economic or immigration issues, or any surprise endorsements and advertising surges in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 TX-37 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-37 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-37 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$362End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The TX-37 race features Democratic incumbent Greg Casar against Republican Lauren Peña in a district redrawn during 2025 mid-decade redistricting that retained a strong Democratic lean based on recent presidential and Senate results. Casar secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the March primary while Peña advanced through the Republican runoff in May, yet both campaigns have seen limited visibility and spending since then. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's urban Austin core and partisan voter index. Trader consensus on exact victory margins remains dispersed across buckets because few public polls exist and no major late-cycle events have shifted fundamentals. Developments that could widen separation include turnout differentials in Democratic strongholds, national midterm messaging on economic or immigration issues, or any surprise endorsements and advertising surges in the final weeks before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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