Anthropic's Claude family, including Mythos 5 and Fable 5, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with scores above 83 as of late August 2026, excelling in reasoning, agentic coding, and multimodal tasks. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on verified evaluations, reflecting sustained capability gains from recent iterations with expanded context windows and tool-use features. Trader consensus appears anchored in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning, reinforced by infrastructure expansions and agent-focused announcements, while other labs trail amid slower progress or internal delays. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence the end-of-2026 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
Google 9%
xAI 7.3%
$842,799 Vol.
$842,799 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
12%
9%
xAI
7%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
Google 9%
xAI 7.3%
$842,799 Vol.
$842,799 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$88,758 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$70,855 Vol.
12%
$43,157 Vol.
9%
xAI
$69,264 Vol.
7%
Meta
$53,880 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$65,378 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$67,614 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$56,017 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$48,920 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$60,615 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,213 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$49,111 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$45,570 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$42,329 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$42,116 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude family, including Mythos 5 and Fable 5, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with scores above 83 as of late August 2026, excelling in reasoning, agentic coding, and multimodal tasks. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on verified evaluations, reflecting sustained capability gains from recent iterations with expanded context windows and tool-use features. Trader consensus appears anchored in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning, reinforced by infrastructure expansions and agent-focused announcements, while other labs trail amid slower progress or internal delays. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence the end-of-2026 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$842,799End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude family, including Mythos 5 and Fable 5, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with scores above 83 as of late August 2026, excelling in reasoning, agentic coding, and multimodal tasks. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on verified evaluations, reflecting sustained capability gains from recent iterations with expanded context windows and tool-use features. Trader consensus appears anchored in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning, reinforced by infrastructure expansions and agent-focused announcements, while other labs trail amid slower progress or internal delays. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence the end-of-2026 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$842,799End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude family, including Mythos 5 and Fable 5, drives the 68.5% market-implied odds by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with scores above 83 as of late August 2026, excelling in reasoning, agentic coding, and multimodal tasks. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini releases on verified evaluations, reflecting sustained capability gains from recent iterations with expanded context windows and tool-use features. Trader consensus appears anchored in Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning, reinforced by infrastructure expansions and agent-focused announcements, while other labs trail amid slower progress or internal delays. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence the end-of-2026 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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