Anthropic’s 68.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude family’s sustained leadership across August 2026 benchmarks, with Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 topping independent indexes like BenchLM (83.4) and Artificial Analysis (63.0) on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Opus 5’s July 24 release delivered the highest published SWE-bench Pro score at half the price of its flagship sibling, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic currently leads frontier capability-per-dollar. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 11% amid partnership shifts and narrower leads on agentic evals, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.6 lag further on core benchmarks despite ecosystem or cost advantages. Key near-term catalysts include any new Anthropic releases or verified benchmark updates before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
Google 9%
xAI 7.3%
$842,794 Vol.
$842,794 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
12%
9%
xAI
7%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 12%
Google 9%
xAI 7.3%
$842,794 Vol.
$842,794 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$88,758 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$70,855 Vol.
12%
$43,157 Vol.
9%
xAI
$69,264 Vol.
7%
Meta
$53,876 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$65,378 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$67,614 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$56,016 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$48,920 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$60,615 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,213 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$49,111 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$45,570 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$42,329 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$42,116 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s 68.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude family’s sustained leadership across August 2026 benchmarks, with Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 topping independent indexes like BenchLM (83.4) and Artificial Analysis (63.0) on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Opus 5’s July 24 release delivered the highest published SWE-bench Pro score at half the price of its flagship sibling, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic currently leads frontier capability-per-dollar. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 11% amid partnership shifts and narrower leads on agentic evals, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.6 lag further on core benchmarks despite ecosystem or cost advantages. Key near-term catalysts include any new Anthropic releases or verified benchmark updates before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$842,794End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s 68.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude family’s sustained leadership across August 2026 benchmarks, with Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 topping independent indexes like BenchLM (83.4) and Artificial Analysis (63.0) on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Opus 5’s July 24 release delivered the highest published SWE-bench Pro score at half the price of its flagship sibling, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic currently leads frontier capability-per-dollar. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 11% amid partnership shifts and narrower leads on agentic evals, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.6 lag further on core benchmarks despite ecosystem or cost advantages. Key near-term catalysts include any new Anthropic releases or verified benchmark updates before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$842,794End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s 68.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude family’s sustained leadership across August 2026 benchmarks, with Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 topping independent indexes like BenchLM (83.4) and Artificial Analysis (63.0) on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Opus 5’s July 24 release delivered the highest published SWE-bench Pro score at half the price of its flagship sibling, reinforcing trader views that Anthropic currently leads frontier capability-per-dollar. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants trail at 11% amid partnership shifts and narrower leads on agentic evals, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.6 lag further on core benchmarks despite ecosystem or cost advantages. Key near-term catalysts include any new Anthropic releases or verified benchmark updates before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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