**The Salvator Mundi’s 91% market-implied probability of remaining off public view through December 31 stems primarily from its long-term storage status and the absence of any confirmed exhibition plans.** Owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since its 2017 record auction, the Leonardo-attributed panel has not appeared publicly since then. It was slated for Louvre Abu Dhabi in 2018 but the showing was postponed indefinitely, and later attempts to include it in major retrospectives fell through over attribution, security, and display demands. Recent reporting places it in secure storage in Geneva or Saudi facilities, pending completion of new cultural venues such as those planned in Riyadh or Al-Ula—projects whose timelines have already slipped past earlier 2024 targets. Traders see little near-term momentum for a change because Saudi cultural initiatives prioritize long-term museum infrastructure over rushed loans, and no guild, curator, or official statement has signaled an imminent debut. Historical precedent reinforces the consensus: repeated delays have kept the work in private hands despite earlier hype around Gulf institutions. While a surprise announcement tied to a 2026 museum opening or diplomatic loan could theoretically shift sentiment, the lack of verifiable progress or precursor signals keeps the probability heavily weighted toward “No” in the near term.