Venezuela's crude output has climbed rapidly to around 1.2–1.25 million barrels per day in mid-2026, the highest level since early 2019, driven by U.S. sanctions relief, new hydrocarbons legislation that cut the government's fiscal take to 20–35%, and roughly 50 investment agreements signed since January. This follows a low of roughly 850,000 bpd in late 2025, with gains concentrated in the Orinoco Belt and supported by higher diluent imports and exports directed toward U.S. refineries. Government and PDVSA targets of 1.37–1.4 million bpd by year-end face headwinds from aging infrastructure, limited rig availability, and ongoing diluent needs, while independent forecasts such as Kpler's point to roughly 1.3 million bpd. Traders are weighing near-term operational momentum against longer-term capital requirements and global crude price dynamics that influence project economics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$182,933 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
1.2m
69%
1.3m
18%
1.4m
8%
1.5m
5%
1.7m
3%
2m
2%
$182,933 Vol.
1.2m
$10,657 Vol.
69%
1.3m
$7,790 Vol.
18%
1.4m
$19,774 Vol.
8%
1.5m
$9,840 Vol.
5%
1.7m
$58,908 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,326 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuela's crude output has climbed rapidly to around 1.2–1.25 million barrels per day in mid-2026, the highest level since early 2019, driven by U.S. sanctions relief, new hydrocarbons legislation that cut the government's fiscal take to 20–35%, and roughly 50 investment agreements signed since January. This follows a low of roughly 850,000 bpd in late 2025, with gains concentrated in the Orinoco Belt and supported by higher diluent imports and exports directed toward U.S. refineries. Government and PDVSA targets of 1.37–1.4 million bpd by year-end face headwinds from aging infrastructure, limited rig availability, and ongoing diluent needs, while independent forecasts such as Kpler's point to roughly 1.3 million bpd. Traders are weighing near-term operational momentum against longer-term capital requirements and global crude price dynamics that influence project economics.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,933End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuela's crude output has climbed rapidly to around 1.2–1.25 million barrels per day in mid-2026, the highest level since early 2019, driven by U.S. sanctions relief, new hydrocarbons legislation that cut the government's fiscal take to 20–35%, and roughly 50 investment agreements signed since January. This follows a low of roughly 850,000 bpd in late 2025, with gains concentrated in the Orinoco Belt and supported by higher diluent imports and exports directed toward U.S. refineries. Government and PDVSA targets of 1.37–1.4 million bpd by year-end face headwinds from aging infrastructure, limited rig availability, and ongoing diluent needs, while independent forecasts such as Kpler's point to roughly 1.3 million bpd. Traders are weighing near-term operational momentum against longer-term capital requirements and global crude price dynamics that influence project economics.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,933End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuela's crude output has climbed rapidly to around 1.2–1.25 million barrels per day in mid-2026, the highest level since early 2019, driven by U.S. sanctions relief, new hydrocarbons legislation that cut the government's fiscal take to 20–35%, and roughly 50 investment agreements signed since January. This follows a low of roughly 850,000 bpd in late 2025, with gains concentrated in the Orinoco Belt and supported by higher diluent imports and exports directed toward U.S. refineries. Government and PDVSA targets of 1.37–1.4 million bpd by year-end face headwinds from aging infrastructure, limited rig availability, and ongoing diluent needs, while independent forecasts such as Kpler's point to roughly 1.3 million bpd. Traders are weighing near-term operational momentum against longer-term capital requirements and global crude price dynamics that influence project economics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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