U.S. military actions in Latin America during 2026 have centered on targeted counter-narcotics operations, joint exercises with regional partners, and a January airstrike operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro without a sustained ground invasion or occupation. Recent developments, including expanded U.S. intelligence and planning for land-based strikes in Colombia and Ecuador under frameworks like Joint Task Force-Western Hemisphere, reflect pressure on cartels and migration but face consistent rejection of unilateral incursions by governments in Mexico and elsewhere. Diplomatic meetings, such as those between U.S. and Mexican officials, and the absence of congressional authorization or large-scale troop deployments underscore barriers to a full invasion. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” based on this pattern of limited, collaborative measures rather than broad military conquest by year-end.