**Russian government support measures and the company's systemic importance in the domestic e-commerce sector have anchored trader expectations against a Wildberries bankruptcy filing before 2027.** Ukrainian drone strikes since mid-July 2026 damaged or destroyed multiple major warehouses, eliminating roughly 10–20% of logistics capacity and inflicting losses estimated at 100–200 billion rubles or more on the platform and its sellers, while accelerating an exodus of merchants that cut turnover by about a quarter. Wildberries already carried substantial debt—reportedly 800 billion to over 1.3 trillion rubles, much of it to state-linked lender VTB—yet pre-attack results showed strong 2025 growth with 6.1 trillion rubles in GMV and 175 billion rubles in net profit. In response, officials have moved quickly to stabilize the situation. The Finance Ministry drafted tax deferrals, installment plans, and audit freezes for the company and affected sellers; President Putin directed reconstruction aid; and the Central Bank instructed lenders to restructure debts rather than force insolvency. Sources indicate authorities view collapse as unacceptable due to ripple effects on hundreds of thousands of small businesses, banking stability, and retail flows representing a significant share of national turnover. Wildberries has paused new investments, prioritized seller support and security, and begun limited compensation while exploring operational shifts such as alternative warehousing. These coordinated state actions, combined with the platform’s scale and creditor ties, have kept formal bankruptcy proceedings off the immediate horizon, producing the current 86% implied probability that no announcement will occur before the end of 2026.