Incumbent Robert Luna advanced from the June 2026 primary to face former Sheriff Alex Villanueva in the November 3 general election runoff, capturing roughly 44% of the vote compared with Villanueva’s 22%. Luna’s established position as the sitting sheriff, his 2022 victory over the same opponent by a wide margin, and broad labor endorsements have anchored trader consensus around his reelection prospects. Villanueva’s campaign has centered on staffing shortages and department management critiques, yet limited polling movement and the absence of major new developments since primary certification have kept implied probabilities stable. Other primary challengers were eliminated, leaving the contest as a rematch with structural advantages favoring the incumbent heading into the fall campaign period.