Mary Peltola holds a decisive lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four Senate primary, placing first with roughly 48-49 percent of votes counted and well ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at about 42 percent. Her commanding position stems from strong name recognition as the former U.S. representative, solid fundraising, and appeal among independent and crossover voters in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November general. Remaining absentee ballots, due by August 28, and final certification expected August 31, are unlikely to close her multi-point margin. Other listed candidates trail far behind and would require an unprecedented late surge to overtake her for the top spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?
Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?
Mary Peltola 99.5%
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan <1%
David Leslie <1%
Shirley Saucerman <1%
$81,086 Vol.
$81,086 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mary Peltola
100%
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan
1%
David Leslie
<1%
Shirley Saucerman
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Richard Benedict Mayers
<1%
Earl D. "Skip" Southworth
<1%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Carol Hafner
<1%
Gerald L. Heikes
<1%
Dan J. Sullivan
<1%
Fred C. Grauberger
<1%
Sid Hill
<1%
Scott Kohlhaas
<1%
Heather McElwain
<1%
Reece Roberts
<1%
Mary Peltola 99.5%
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan <1%
David Leslie <1%
Shirley Saucerman <1%
$81,086 Vol.
$81,086 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mary Peltola
$35,940 Vol.
100%
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan
$28,770 Vol.
1%
David Leslie
$3,015 Vol.
<1%
Shirley Saucerman
$2,435 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grayson
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
Richard Benedict Mayers
$947 Vol.
<1%
Earl D. "Skip" Southworth
$969 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Darden
$705 Vol.
<1%
Carol Hafner
$752 Vol.
<1%
Gerald L. Heikes
$502 Vol.
<1%
Dan J. Sullivan
$1,493 Vol.
<1%
Fred C. Grauberger
$1,713 Vol.
<1%
Sid Hill
$550 Vol.
<1%
Scott Kohlhaas
$539 Vol.
<1%
Heather McElwain
$1,077 Vol.
<1%
Reece Roberts
$634 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Mary Peltola holds a decisive lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four Senate primary, placing first with roughly 48-49 percent of votes counted and well ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at about 42 percent. Her commanding position stems from strong name recognition as the former U.S. representative, solid fundraising, and appeal among independent and crossover voters in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November general. Remaining absentee ballots, due by August 28, and final certification expected August 31, are unlikely to close her multi-point margin. Other listed candidates trail far behind and would require an unprecedented late surge to overtake her for the top spot.
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$81,086End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Mary Peltola holds a decisive lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four Senate primary, placing first with roughly 48-49 percent of votes counted and well ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at about 42 percent. Her commanding position stems from strong name recognition as the former U.S. representative, solid fundraising, and appeal among independent and crossover voters in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November general. Remaining absentee ballots, due by August 28, and final certification expected August 31, are unlikely to close her multi-point margin. Other listed candidates trail far behind and would require an unprecedented late surge to overtake her for the top spot.
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$81,086End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mary Peltola holds a decisive lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four Senate primary, placing first with roughly 48-49 percent of votes counted and well ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan at about 42 percent. Her commanding position stems from strong name recognition as the former U.S. representative, solid fundraising, and appeal among independent and crossover voters in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November general. Remaining absentee ballots, due by August 28, and final certification expected August 31, are unlikely to close her multi-point margin. Other listed candidates trail far behind and would require an unprecedented late surge to overtake her for the top spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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