David Crowley’s narrow Democratic primary victory in Wisconsin’s open 2026 gubernatorial race produced a sub-1% margin over Francesca Hong, aligning with overwhelming trader consensus on that outcome. Late endorsement by retiring Gov. Tony Evers consolidated establishment and moderate support after multiple candidate dropouts, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez amid campaign finance issues. Hong’s polling lead eroded in the final days as past statements resurfaced and undecided voters broke heavily toward Crowley in Milwaukee and rural areas. The August 11 results showed Crowley at 39.8% to Hong’s 39.3%, a gap of roughly 3,800 votes. Recounts, certification disputes, or newly discovered ballots could theoretically widen the margin, though historical patterns in Wisconsin primaries make such shifts exceeding 1% improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrowley <1% 99.0%
Crowley 1–2% <1%
Crowley 2–3% <1%
Crowley 3–4% <1%
$108,794 Vol.
$108,794 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
Crowley <1%
99%
Crowley 1–2%
1%
Crowley 2–3%
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
<1%
Crowley 4–5%
<1%
Crowley 5–6%
<1%
Crowley 6%+
<1%
Crowley <1% 99.0%
Crowley 1–2% <1%
Crowley 2–3% <1%
Crowley 3–4% <1%
$108,794 Vol.
$108,794 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
Crowley <1%
$19,047 Vol.
99%
Crowley 1–2%
$12,840 Vol.
1%
Crowley 2–3%
$9,926 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
$10,234 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 4–5%
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 5–6%
$3,312 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 6%+
$4,102 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley’s narrow Democratic primary victory in Wisconsin’s open 2026 gubernatorial race produced a sub-1% margin over Francesca Hong, aligning with overwhelming trader consensus on that outcome. Late endorsement by retiring Gov. Tony Evers consolidated establishment and moderate support after multiple candidate dropouts, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez amid campaign finance issues. Hong’s polling lead eroded in the final days as past statements resurfaced and undecided voters broke heavily toward Crowley in Milwaukee and rural areas. The August 11 results showed Crowley at 39.8% to Hong’s 39.3%, a gap of roughly 3,800 votes. Recounts, certification disputes, or newly discovered ballots could theoretically widen the margin, though historical patterns in Wisconsin primaries make such shifts exceeding 1% improbable.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$108,794End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley’s narrow Democratic primary victory in Wisconsin’s open 2026 gubernatorial race produced a sub-1% margin over Francesca Hong, aligning with overwhelming trader consensus on that outcome. Late endorsement by retiring Gov. Tony Evers consolidated establishment and moderate support after multiple candidate dropouts, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez amid campaign finance issues. Hong’s polling lead eroded in the final days as past statements resurfaced and undecided voters broke heavily toward Crowley in Milwaukee and rural areas. The August 11 results showed Crowley at 39.8% to Hong’s 39.3%, a gap of roughly 3,800 votes. Recounts, certification disputes, or newly discovered ballots could theoretically widen the margin, though historical patterns in Wisconsin primaries make such shifts exceeding 1% improbable.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$108,794End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley’s narrow Democratic primary victory in Wisconsin’s open 2026 gubernatorial race produced a sub-1% margin over Francesca Hong, aligning with overwhelming trader consensus on that outcome. Late endorsement by retiring Gov. Tony Evers consolidated establishment and moderate support after multiple candidate dropouts, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez amid campaign finance issues. Hong’s polling lead eroded in the final days as past statements resurfaced and undecided voters broke heavily toward Crowley in Milwaukee and rural areas. The August 11 results showed Crowley at 39.8% to Hong’s 39.3%, a gap of roughly 3,800 votes. Recounts, certification disputes, or newly discovered ballots could theoretically widen the margin, though historical patterns in Wisconsin primaries make such shifts exceeding 1% improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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